Review of 1/22/17 Projection

Biggest Movers from Prior Projection

Marquette (+10 spots) – Last week, Marquette was my last team in the field. After picking up their best win of the season on the road against Creighton, I now have the Golden Eagles up to a 9 seed. As always, a team’s movement isn’t solely due to the results in the games they played; it is also relative to how teams around them in the rankings performed. Almost all teams directly above Marquette picked up losses this week.

Arizona (+7 spots) – Arizona got Alonzo Trier back just in time for the big showdown against UCLA in Los Angeles, and the Wildcats essentially laid out the blueprint on how to beat UCLA. Arizona also picked up a road win against another tournament team (USC) during the week. Those are huge wins and they put Arizona in the driver’s seat to win the Pac-12 title. With only losses to Butler and Gonzaga (both coming on neutral floors), and the return of Trier to the lineup, the ceiling is very high for the Wildcats.

Bubble Watch

Last Four Teams In

Pittsburgh – The Panthers are in free fall, losing 5 of their first 6 conference games, the most recent two being to fellow bubble teams Miami and NC State. While Pittsburgh has the awful home loss to Duquesne and a road loss to Syracuse, they own wins @ Maryland, vs. Virginia, and neutral court over Marquette. That’s the best group of wins for any of the “Last Four In” and “First Four Out” teams, and it’s enough to leave them in the field, for now.

Georgia – My oh my, the Bulldogs gave away a game on the road for the second straight weekend, this time blowing a 9 point lead with under 2 minutes to play and then to top it off they get hosed by the clock operator. If you haven’t seen the ending, I recommend checking it out as there needs to be a better solution to answering the problem of a clock freezing at the end of a game, but I digress. The hoop dawgs have 3 road wins over top 100 teams, which should be huge. Key word is should be. Last year the selection committee made a mistake (in my and many other’s opinions) by leaving Monmouth out of the field in favor of Tulsa and Vanderbilt. Road wins are so tough to come by and they should be valued more. I’m hoping that the committee takes that into consideration when evaluating Georgia’s resume on Selection Sunday.

Miami FL – Miami lost games at Wake Forest and Duke this week; not bad losses, but what was keeping them above some of the other bubble teams previously was their 4 losses compared to 6. Now that they have 6 losses, including one at a mediocre Syracuse team, couple with just 3 wins against the top 100, they find themselves square on the bubble. The good news for them is by playing in the ACC, they have multiple opportunities remaining to pick up quality wins, including a home game against North Carolina this coming Saturday.

Texas Tech – Texas Tech is consistently inconsistent. They have alternated wins and losses in consecutive games dating back to December 21^st. They only have 5 losses, they also only have 3 wins against the top 100, and all have come at home. They also own a win on the road over #103 Richmond, which I’ll credit as a top 100 win, but the lack of quality wins coupled with a non-conference strength of schedule ranking 338 will have Red Raiders sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

First Four Teams Out

Wake Forest – Wake Forest’s record may not look great on the surface (12-7), but once you dig deeper, you see that all 7 losses come against top 50 teams, the worst of them being against Clemson. They do not have any top 50 wins, but they own wins over @ #61 Charleston, @ #72 NC State, vs. #76 Miami, and vs. #97 Bucknell, who is expected to win their conference. The wins over Miami and NC State came this past week, which propelled them from not even being on my radar to being the first team out in my projection. They play in the ACC, which means that will have opportunities to pick up top 50 wins over the next 7 weeks.

Rhode Island – The Rams only played once this week against a team raked in the 200s and won, so no major movement here. They own a nice neutral court win over Cincinnati and that’s about it. They have two big games this week @ Richmond and vs. St. Bonaventure, both presenting opportunities for borderline top 100 wins.

VCU – VCU played themselves out of the tournament this week with a loss @ #194 Fordham. They bounced back with a home win over a good La Salle team on Sunday, but they picked up the one thing separating them from the other bubble teams: a bad loss. VCU owns just 3 top 100 wins and all came at home. They have a showdown with conference favorite Dayton on Friday, which could push them back into the field.

California – The bubble is tough to evaluate this time of the year, hence the reason I have Cal, a team with just one top 100 win, this close to being in the field. That win, however, did come on the road against USC and their worst loss is on a neutral court to # 88 San Diego State. The Golden Bears have three straight home games coming up, and can’t afford to lose any of them if they want to be considered for selection.

Games of Interest This Week

In this section, I will list one game I am most interested in each weekday, and will select a few weekend games. These games won’t necessarily be the best matchup in terms of top 25 rankings on those days, but rather games that could have a material impact on a team’s seed or inclusion into the field come Selection Sunday.

TCU @ Oklahoma State (Monday) – Slim pickings on Monday’s slate, so we’ll go to the Big 12. TCU is the surprise of the season in college basketball; projected to finish last in the Big 12, but now sitting at 14-5 with no bad losses. The computers love Oklahoma State for whatever reason despite an 11-8 record, so a win on the road would be good for TCU’s resume and get them further away from the bubble.  

Louisville @ Pittsburgh (Tuesday) – Pittsburgh desperately needs a win, not just to get off their 4 game losing streak and avoid dropping out of the bracket, but also to help offset the early home loss to a bad Duquesne team. Louisville meanwhile is coming off a tough loss at Florida State, and could use a quality road win to go along with their great home wins over Kentucky, Duke, and Purdue and neutral court wins over Indiana and VCU.

Texas Tech @ Baylor (Wednesday) – Texas Tech is my last team in the field, but a win over a projected number one seed on the road will give them a leg up over other bubble teams come Selection Sunday. The Red Raiders currently have just 3 wins over the top 100, and all of them came at home. They have been very unpredictable over the past two weeks, as they’ve followed up wins over Kansas State and TCU with losses to Oklahoma State and @ Oklahoma. I still wonder if that 338^th ranked non-conference strength of schedule will keep them out on Selection Sunday…

Xavier @ Cincinnati (Thursday) – This may be the most intense rivalry in college basketball. Now before Kentucky and Louisville fans start screaming at that statement, consider that Xavier and Cincinnati campuses are about 2.5 miles apart from each other, the fan bases truly hate each other, and even the players hate the other. Check out this article from Mark Titus in 2015 for more detail on the rivalry. In terms of the 2017 season, this game means a lot for both team’s seeding in the NCAA tournament. Both teams should be safe in terms of making the field, but both teams are hovering on that 5/6 seed line. While some may argue a 6 seed is better than a 5 seed because you avoid playing the 1 seed until the Elite 8, give me the easier path to the second weekend and I’ll take my chances from there.

Clemson @ Pittsburgh (Saturday) – Expect a lot of ACC games to be featured in this weekly feature. Probably too early to start calling games a “play-in” game, but both teams are in free fall and are in desperate need of a win for their tournament hopes.

Maryland @ Minnesota (Saturday) – Maryland has an intriguing resume. They are 16-2 overall with home court losses to Pittsburgh and Nebraska. Their best win is a one point neutral court win over Kansas State. While receiving the favorable conference schedule is good for improving the odds of winning the conference title, it weakens the opportunity to pick up quality wins. Look at Indiana last season, which won the Big Ten but received a 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. This is one of the few opportunities Maryland has to pick up a quality road win.

Duke @ Wake Forest (Saturday) – While Duke is safely in the tournament, the same cannot be said for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have a record of 12-7 with all 7 losses coming to teams ranked in the top 50. They don’t really have a signature win yet (best is @ #61 Charleston), but this could be the biggest home game in years for the program. It’s a natural rivalry, and their fans know how much a win over Duke would mean for the team’s NCAA tournament chances.

Kansas @ Kentucky (Saturday) – This is gonna be a fun one. Both teams are currently projected as one seeds and are legit Final Four contenders. While a road win against a top 10 team would be huge for Kansas, Kentucky needs this game more given the weakness of the SEC compared to the strength of the Big 12. Kansas can lose this game and still pick up quality wins in their conference to earn a one seed on Selection Sunday. If Kentucky loses, they will be 2-3 in their marquee non-conference games (already have wins against North Carolina and Michigan State, losses to UCLA and Louisville).

Michigan @ Michigan State (Sunday) – Michigan State has a big week ahead with home games against Purdue and rival Michigan. The first game is an opportunity to pick up a quality win. A win in this game helps the Spartans avoid a loss to a fellow bubble team. Michigan, meanwhile, could use a quality road win to help their bubble status, as they are currently one of the last five teams in my projected field.