Sunday, January 15, 2017

Review of 1/15/17 Projection


This piece will vary week to week depending on what I want to talk about. This week, I will highlight the number one seed's profiles, the team most likely to earn a one seed that is currently not projected as a one seed, Bubble Watch, and a preview of the intriguing match-ups this week.

#1 Seeds

Baylor: Baylor has earned the number one overall seed thanks to great non-conference wins over Louisville, Xavier, Oregon, Michigan State, and VCU. They also picked up wins against likely conference champions Florida Gulf Coast and Texas Southern. The only loss came this past week at West Virginia.

Villanova: The defending national champs just miss out on being the number one overall seed. Their only blemish is a loss at Hinkle Fieldhouse to a very good Butler team. Villanova has true road wins against Creighton and Purdue, in addition to a neutral court win over Notre Dame.

Kansas: Kansas opened the season with a loss to Indiana in Hawaii, but have won every game since. This includes wins over Duke, Georgia and TCU. Not exactly the greatest group of wins, but when you only have one loss you’re going to get a great seed.

Kentucky: Kentucky has dropped two games thus far to UCLA at home and at rival Louisville. Kentucky really can’t afford to lose many more games and retain a one seed given the conference they play in. Wins over North Carolina (in what could be the best game of the season, in terms of entertain value) and Michigan State highlight the resume.

Team Not Currently a 1 Seed Most Likely to End Up As a 1 Seed

Gonzaga: The Zags are undefeated on the season, and just beat rival St. Mary’s rather easily on their home floor. The only real test left for Gonzaga is a road trip to St. Mary’s. They picked up three great wins in the non-conference, all coming on a neutral floor: Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona. Their best case scenario is for St. Mary’s to win every game expect for the game against Gonzaga, and then face St. Mary’s again in the conference tournament.

Bubble Watch

Last Four Teams In

VCU – The Rams’ resume doesn’t look great on the surface, as they don’t have any top 100 RPI wins away from home. But upon digger deeper, they have 3 wins over teams that are expected to win their conference (Middle Tennessee, UNC-Asheville, and Princeton) and two of their four losses are on neutral courts to Baylor and Illinois. A home court loss to Georgia Tech back in December and losing at Davidson this past weekend are why they are on the bubble.

California – Cal is just 2-4 against the top 100 in the RPI, but those two wins came away from home against teams likely to make the tournament. In addition, 3 of those 4 losses are to teams ranked in the top 19. Their worst loss is on a neutral court to San Diego State, who is just outside the top 100. As long as Cal doesn’t lose to Oregon State or Arizona State, they should make the field.

Michigan – Michigan has a bad loss at Iowa on their resume, but when it comes to selecting teams for the field, I believe the committee cares more about who you’ve beaten than who you’ve lost to. Michigan owns wins on a neutral court over both SMU and Marquette, and has home wins over Nebraska and Penn State. They’ve yet to win a true road game, however, and that will need to change if they want to be in the field on Selection Sunday.

Marquette – The Golden Eagles have wins at Georgia and at home against Seton Hall. They also do not have a bad loss, as all 5 losses are against teams projected in the field. Marquette has a chance to play themselves into or out of the field over their next three games, as they play @ Butler, @ Creighton, and host Villanova. Those are the three best teams in the conference and are all in the top 10 of the RPI.

First Four Teams Out

Georgia –Georgia currently has a top 25 non-con SOS, but unfortunately their best non-conference win was against UNC-Asheville. While UNC-Asheville is projected to win their conference, they are a fringe top 100 team. Georgia also owns two road wins in conference play against top 100 teams, but missed out on a golden opportunity at Florida this past weekend. The Bulldogs lost in OT at the O-Dome after leading for much of the game.

Texas Tech –Texas Tech is being left out of my list due to their non-conference SOS, which ranks in the 300s. Recall that the primary reason South Carolina was left out of the tournament last year was due to their horrid non-conference SOS. The Red Raiders missed out on an opportunity to improve their SOS when they lost to Auburn in the Cancun Challenge back in November, giving them a game in the next round against Utah State instead of Purdue. Texas Tech also lost to Oklahoma this weekend, and I imagine that will place them outside of more people’s bracket projection.

Rhode Island – The Rams have a neutral court victory over American Conference favorite Cincinnati and…that’s it. They have lost conference games to Dayton and La Salle recently, and lost their other key non-conference games to Valpo, Houston, and Providence. Their next chance for a quality win doesn’t come until 2/10 while they have a rematch against Dayton.

Penn State – Maybe some Big ten bias here, but Penn State over the past two weekends has picked up wins over Michigan State and Minnesota. Their next three games are huge, as they host Indiana and then hit the road against the conference’s two best teams: Purdue and Wisconsin. They have a really bad loss at home to Albany, but teams have overcome bad home non-conference losses in the past through a stellar conference season.

Games of Interest This Week

This will a weekly inclusion to this post. In this section, I will list the one game I am most interested in each weekday, and will select a few weekend games. These games won’t necessarily be the best match-up in terms of top 25 rankings on those days, but rather I'm looking for games that could have a material impact on a team’s seed or inclusion into the field come Selection Sunday.

Marquette @ Butler (Monday) – Marquette has a couple chances this week to bolster their resume and potentially play themselves off the bubble. The first of those two games will be at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Butler has always had a great home court advantage, so coming away with a win at Hinkle would be huge come Selection Sunday. 

Michigan @ Wisconsin (Tuesday) – The Wolverines are currently my second to last team in the field, but a win in Madison would certainly put them into the field. Wisconsin needs to defend home court if they want to win the Big Ten regular season.

Florida @ South Carolina (Wednesday) – South Carolina learned their lesson from last year and scheduled a very good non-conference slate. They played against middle of the road major conference teams (Clemson, Michigan, Syracuse, and Seton Hall) and small conference teams expected to win their conference (Vermont, Monmouth). However, their best win to date is at Georgia, who I have as first team out of the field. A home win against Florida would be huge given the lack of opportunities for quality wins in the SEC.

Arizona @ USC (Thursday) – Arizona and USC could both use some quality wins to solidify their profiles. Arizona does not have a bad loss, but its best win is on a neutral court against bubbly Michigan State. USC meanwhile only has one win over a team projected to make the tournament, SMU.

Illinois @ Michigan (Saturday) – Michigan just got the doors blown off them in Urbana-Champaign a week ago. Both teams are the very definition of a bubble team. If Illinois were to sweep Michigan, that would be nice to have on the resume come Selection Sunday.  

Marquette @ Creighton (Saturday) – The second chance for Marquette to pick up a quality win comes Saturday at Creighton. The Blue Jays have one of the best, if not the best, offenses in college basketball.

Michigan State @ Indiana (Saturday) – The past couple of weekends have not been kind to Sparty. First, a loss on a neutral court to conference foe and now bubble team Penn State on 1/7, and then they allowed Ohio State to pick up their first conference win on 1/15 in Columbus. The Hoosiers have two of the best nonconference wins of any team (against Kansas and North Carolina), but their nonconference SOS is horrid, as their only other top 100 RPI win is against Illinois. Both teams needs this one.

Wisconsin @ Minnesota (Saturday) – Is Minnesota for real, or did they just get hot for a couple weeks? The Gophers dropped games at Michigan State and at Penn State this past week after a hot start to conference play, but now have a full week to prepare for their biggest home game of the season against conference favorite Wisconsin. Expect The Barn to be rocking.

Virginia Tech @ Clemson (Sunday) – Life in the ACC is rough. Clemson has lost 4 straight, and will likely be on a five game skid coming into this game as they have a trip to Louisville mid-week. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, is 2-3 in the ACC with one of those wins coming against Grayson Allen-less Duke on New Years Eve. While I don’t think the committee should factor that into either team’s resume since the absence was his own fault, you just know they will. While both teams have chances to pick up quality wins due to the strength of the ACC, a win over a fellow bubble team never hurts.

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