Top 16 Projection for 2/11/17

The committee is releasing their top 16 teams (top 4 seeds in each region) on Saturday. This is a first for the committee, and their goal is to shed some light on the selection and seeding process. Below is my attempt to mimic what their ranking will be, as well as what region the teams will play in. Projection is based on results through 2/9/17.

Teams are ranked in order by seed.

1 seeds: Villanova, Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas

2 seeds: Florida State, North Carolina, Oregon, Arizona

3 seeds: Virginia, Louisville, Butler, Kentucky

4 seeds: UCLA, Cincinnati, Duke, West Virginia

Teams just missing the cut (aka the 5 seeds): Wisconsin, Florida, Purdue, Creighton

Here is the bracket, adjusted for geography, making sure the top four teams from the same conference aren't placed in the same regional, and competitive balance. First round sites are in parentheses.

I believe the top four teams are clearly the most deserving of a one seed at this point, and would be shocked if FSU or UNC jumped up to the one seed line. FSU and UNC should be locked in as two seeds. Then it gets interesting. I can see any of Oregon, Arizona, Virginia, and Louisville taking the two remaining two seed spots. Here is my reasoning for why I believe the committee will rank the teams as shown above:

Oregon – The Ducks are 5-2 against the top 50 this year and 10-3 vs. the top 100. They may have just lost a close game on the road to UCLA, but I believe the committee will give Oregon some slack in their losses to Baylor (no Brooks) and Georgetown (first game with Brooks back and only played 13 minutes).

Arizona – Arizona owns a 4-3 record against the top 50 and is 9-3 against the top 100. Their three losses are on neutral courts to Gonzaga and Butler and at Oregon. No bad losses coupled with a good win % against the top 100 is what gives them the edge over Virginia and Louisville

Virginia – Virginia is 6-3 vs. the top 50 and 12-5 vs. the top 100, but only their sweep of Louisville looks great in those numbers. Wins over Notre Dame and Clemson are losing their luster, while the win over Cal is getting a little better as the Bears keep winning and play themselves into the tournament.

Louisville – The Cards are just 3-5 against the top 50, but those three wins are to Kentucky, Duke, and Purdue all at home. Their worst loss is to Notre Dame, which is by no means a bad loss. I just think the two losses to Virginia is the trump card here.

After those four teams, I have somewhat of a surprise in Butler. The Bulldogs have cooled off recently, losing home games to Georgetown and Creighton. However, Butler is an eye-popping 7-2 vs. the top 50 and 15-3 vs. the top 100. They loaded the nonconference scheduled and delivered great results. The problem? They have two losses to teams in the 101-200 cohort (and one of those is the team square on 200, Indiana State).

Kentucky owns a 5-5 record vs. the top 50 and is 10-5 vs. the top 100. A win over North Carolina on a neutral court highlights the profile, but after that it's a bunch of SEC teams (South Carolina is a good win, but otherwise, meh) and bubbly Michigan State. What gives them the edge over UCLA, even though UCLA owns a head-to-head win at Kentucky, is the strength of schedule (SOS). Kentucky owns the 13th best SOS (out of 351 D1 schools) compared to UCLA's 139th SOS, thanks to a non-conference SOS of 278...yikes.

UCLA and Duke received big boosts with their wins Thursday night over Oregon and North Carolina, respectively. In addition, the committee has said they would take Coach K’s absence “into consideration” when evaluating Duke’s profile. I read that to mean they won’t be putting as much emphasis on their loss to NC State at home. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has just two losses on the season and owns wins over likely tournament teams in Xavier, SMU, and Iowa State. They play at SMU on Sunday, their last chance to pick up a quality, resume building win in the regular season.

The final spot goes to West Virginia. The Mountaineers have the most intriguing profile this season. They own wins at home over Kansas and Baylor, and won on the road at Virginia. However, they have lost to Temple, Texas Tech and Oklahoma, three teams with no shot at making the tournament (and OU is a sub-150 team now). The other thing going against WVU is their non-conference SOS, which ranks 272^nd. That results in them being just 8-4 vs. the top 100. I am very interested to see where the committee places WVU.

Now for the what may be the biggest surprise: I have left Wisconsin out of the top 16.Wisconsin is currently 7^th in the polls, but they are just 2-3 vs. the top 50, and those wins are over Minnesota and Tennessee. The former is looking like a 7 to 9 seed this season, while the latter is the very definition of a bubble team. The sweep of IU will lose luster as the Hoosiers play themselves out of the tournament. Wisconsin did win at Marquette in the non-conference, but the Golden Eagles are doing their best to their best to play themselves out of the tournament as well. I can see the committee putting Wisconsin inside the top 16 due to their 12-3 record vs. the top 100, but when I see a 236th ranked non-conference SOS coupled with no real quality wins and three losses to the three best teams they have faced, losing all games by double digits, I just don’t see how that team is a top 16 team. Replace the name Wisconsin with Gonzaga on that resume and people would be having fits that that team is ranked in the top 10 in the polls.