Review of 2/5/17 Projection

Biggest Movers from Prior Projection

Oklahoma State (+9 spots) – The Cowboys started their conference season 0-6, but have since won four in a row, including their most recent win against West Virginia on the road. They have gone from not on my radar to a 9 seed in the matter of 3 weeks. Overreaction on my part? Perhaps. But when everyone else around you is losing and all you do is win, you’re going to move up.

VCU (+7 spots) – The Rams got a win at St. Bonaventure over the weekend in what will be the most improbable win of the season. The Bonnies made a bucket with 0.4 seconds left in the game to take a one point lead and seemingly upset VCU; however, the fans rushed the court, resulting in a technical foul and one free throw attempt for VCU. The free throw was made, forcing overtime, and as you can probably imagine VCU rolled in OT to a win. They also picked up a win over Richmond mid-week. Both Richmond and St. Bonaventure are borderline top 100 RPI teams.

Bubble Watch

Last Four Teams In

Kansas State – Kansas State picked up their signature win on the road against Baylor to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive. They only have three top 100 RPI wins, but all seven losses are to teams ranked 80^th or better. They have a very tough week ahead (more on that below) that could make or break their season.

Miami FL – Miami has five top 100 RPI wins, but two of those are to #91 NC State. Their signature win is over North Carolina, and their worst loss is on the road against an improving Syracuse team that is currently 69^th in the RPI (nice).

California – Cal is quietly on a four game winning streak (assuming they hold onto Colorado at home…they lead at the half by double digits as I type this). Recent wins over top 100 teams Stanford and Utah are good, but most importantly they have avoided a bad loss in conference play. A win at USC highlights the resume, which can be improved with a win at Arizona this coming Saturday.

Arkansas – Arkansas was the top rated 9 seed in my projection last week, mainly because they didn’t have a bad loss or a high number of losses relative to the other bubble teams. That all changed when they lost to #235 Missouri over the weekend. That is one of the worst losses any bubble team has, and it could cost them a bid on Selection Sunday.

First Four Teams Out

Wake Forest – As I mentioned last week, Wake Forest is only on this list because of how the committee let Vanderbilt into the field last season. Wake currently has zero top 50 wins and nine losses; however, eight of those are against the top 50. I believe that if you can’t pick up a single win over a top 50 team in eight tries, then you don’t deserve a bid. But, I am having to mimic the committee, and I just feel Wake is going to be very close on Selection Sunday.

Michigan – Michigan lost at home to Ohio State over the weekend, and find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble for the first time in my projection. They have a win over SMU on a neutral court earlier in the season, but that’s their only top 50 win. They have a shot to pick up another one when they host rival Michigan State this week.

Rhode Island – Rhode Island picked up a couple wins over top 150 teams this week to get back into the discussion of an at large bid. The Rams have a big week ahead, as they play at #150 UMass and host conference favorite #36 Dayton. A win over Dayton would give them their fourth top 100 win on the season, to go along with wins over #16 Cincinnati, #73 Belmont, and #98 St. Bonaventure.

Tennessee – Tennessee was so close to getting into my projected field, and then they lost to Mississippi State over the weekend. Before that loss, the Vols had won four straight #64 Auburn, #39 Kansas State, #7 Kentucky, and that same Mississippi State team. Tennessee has 10 losses on the season, but has the 8^th ranked non-conference strength of schedule, benefited by playing in the Maui Invitational. They have a couple opportunities to picked up good wins at home this coming week as they host Ole Miss and Georgia.

Games of Interest This Week

In this section, I will list one game I am most interested in each weekday, and will select a few weekend games. These games won’t necessarily be the best matchup in terms of top 25 rankings on those days, but rather games that could have a material impact on a team’s seed or inclusion into the field come Selection Sunday.

Kansas @ Kansas State (Monday) – Earlier in the season Kansas State lost by 2 points at Kansas on a horribly missed travel call that even Kansas admitted was a travel. Kansas is coming off their first home court loss in 54 games while Kansas State is coming off their biggest win of the season at Baylor. K-State usually gives Kansas a good game in Manhattan, and I don’t expect anything different this time around. Kansas needs this to remain a one seed, while K-State needs this to feel safe on Selection Sunday.

Michigan State @ Michigan (Tuesday) – Michigan dropped a home game over the weekend to Ohio State, and now finds themselves on the outside-looking-in in my latest projection. Michigan State is quietly starting to turn things around after a tough non-conference season. Both teams really need this game, as Michigan State home court loss to Northeastern earlier in the season, which three weeks ago was a respectable but head scratching top 100 loss, continues to look worse and worse (now a sud-150 loss).

Baylor @ Oklahoma State (Wednesday) – As mentioned in the Bubble Watch sections, the Cowboys started their conference season 0-6, but have since won four in a row, including their most recent win against West Virginia on the road. They have gone from not on my radar to a 9 seed in the matter of 3 weeks. A win here would propel them even further away from the bubble. Baylor, meanwhile, is coming off two straight losses to the Kansas schools, but remains a one seed thanks to their abundance of quality wins.

Oregon @ UCLA (Thursday) – Oregon blew the doors off Arizona over the weekend, as they seemingly could not miss from three. They now have to make the L.A. swing, which is the toughest in the Pac-12 this season. It starts with a game at UCLA, a team whose only quality win is on the road against Kentucky. The Pac 12 does not offer opportunities for quality wins like the ACC, Big 12, or Big East, so UCLA needs to win this one if they want to keep a protected seed (i.e. a one through four seed). If Oregon wins this one, they are in the driver’s seat for the Pac 12 title, as they own the head-to-head tiebreak over Arizona.

Kansas State @ West Virginia (Saturday) – Kansas State follows their home game against Kansas on Monday night with a trip to Morgantown against West Virginia. West Virginia has such an intriguing resume; it includes wins over Kansas, Baylor, and on the road against Virginia. They also have lost to Temple, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma…three teams that are not going to make the tournament barring an unforeseen run in their conference tournaments. This is a huge week for Kansas State to make some national noise and play themselves off the bubble.

Miami FL @ Louisville (Saturday) – Miami is squarely on the bubble, while Louisville is oh so close to being a one seed. When everyone around them continues to lose, the Cardinals just keep winning. Louisville has a game on Monday at Virginia, and if they win that game along with this one, it’ll be time to put the Cardinals on that one seed line. Miami can avoiding having to play in Dayton to start their NCAA tournament with a win here.

Villanova @ Xavier (Saturday) – Villanova always has a target on their back, and that will be no different when they visit Xavier. Unfortunately for Xavier, they lost a key player to a season ending injury last week, but that didn’t stop them from picking up a win at Creighton. I’ve always thought the Cintas Center is one of the more underrated environments in the sport, and I look forward to seeing if that can lift the Musketeers to a victory over the defending national champs.

Gonzaga @ St. Mary’s (Saturday) – This is the game of the season in the West Coast Conference. ESPN’s College Gameday is going to be there, and rightfully so. St. Mary’s has a great gym that has produced some great games against Gonzaga over the past 5 or so years. The obvious story line is Gonzaga being undefeated heading into the game, and if they come away with a victory here, they will most likely be undefeated heading to the NCAA tournament and potentially the number one overall seed.

Cincinnati @ SMU (Sunday) – Much like the game above this one, this is the game of the season in the American Conference. Cincinnati already beat SMU by just 2 points in Cincinnati a month ago, but that is SMU’s only conference loss. A win by Cincinnati here almost guarantees them at least a share of the regular season conference title.