FINAL 2026 Bracketology

 1 seeds: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida

2 seeds: Houston, Connecticut, Iowa State, Purdue

3 seeds: Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Illinois, Virginia

4 seeds: Gonzaga, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kansas

5 seeds: Alabama, Saint John’s, Texas Tech, Wisconsin

6 seeds: Tennessee, North Carolina, Louisville, BYU

7 seeds: Kentucky, Miami FL, UCLA, Saint Mary’s

8 seeds: Utah State, Clemson, Villanova, Georgia

9 seeds: TCU, Ohio State, Iowa, UCF

10 seeds: Texas A&M, Saint Louis, NC State, Santa Clara

11 seeds: VCU, Miami OH, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, South Florida

12 seeds: Akron, McNeese State, Northern Iowa, High Point

13 seeds: California Baptist, Hofstra, Hawaii, Penn

14 seeds: Troy, North Dakota State, Wright State, Idaho

15 seeds: Kennesaw State, Tennessee State, Furman, Queens

16 seeds: Siena, UMBC, Long Island, Howard, Lehigh, Prairie View

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Miami OH, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma

Others Considered: SMU, Auburn, San Diego State, New Mexico

/***********************************************************************************/

 

 

 

3/14/2026 Bracketology

 Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida

2 seeds: Houston, Connecticut, Iowa State, Michigan State

3 seeds: Purdue, Virginia, Gonzaga, Illinois

4 seeds: Nebraska, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Kansas

5 seeds: Arkansas, Texas Tech, Saint John’s, Wisconsin

6 seeds: North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisville, BYU

7 seeds: Miami FL, Kentucky, Clemson, Saint Mary’s

8 seeds: Georgia, UCLA, Villanova, Ohio State

9 seeds: Utah State, TCU, Texas A&M, Iowa

10 seeds: Saint Louis, UCF, NC State, Missouri

11 seeds: Santa Clara, Miami OH, VCU, Oklahoma, SMU, South Florida

12 seeds: Akron, Yale, McNeese State, High Point

13 seeds: Northen Iowa, Utah Valley, Hofstra, North Dakota State

14 seeds: UC Irvine, Troy, Wright State, Tennessee State

15 seeds: Furman, Idaho, Queens, Louisiana Tech

16 seeds: Siena, UMBC, Long Island, Howard, Lehigh, Southern

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Miami OH, VCU, Oklahoma, SMU

Others Considered: Texas, San Diego State, New Mexico

/***********************************************************************************/

 

3/10/2026 Bracketology

Auto bids in bold.

1 seeds: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida

2 seeds: Houston, Connecticut, Michigan State, Illinois

3 seeds: Nebraska, Iowa State, Gonzaga, Purdue

4 seeds: Alabama, Virginia, Kansas, Vanderbilt

5 seeds: Texas Tech, Arkansas, Saint John’s, North Carolina

6 seeds: Wisconsin, Tennessee, Louisville, BYU

7 seeds: Georgia, Miami FL, Kentucky, UCLA

8 seeds: Saint Mary’s, Villanova, Clemson, Iowa

9 seeds: Utah State, TCU, Ohio State, Texas A&M

10 seeds: Saint Louis, Missouri, UCF, NC State

11 seeds: Santa Clara, Miami OH, SMU, Texas, VCU, Stanford

12 seeds: South Florida, Yale, Stephen F. Austin, High Point

13 seeds: Liberty, Utah Valley, Northen Iowa, Hofstra

14 seeds: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Troy, Portland State

15 seeds: Wright State, Merrimack, Tennessee State, Furman

16 seeds: Queens, Long Island, UMBC, Howard, Bethune Cookman, Lehigh

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: SMU, Texas, VCU, Stanford

First Four Out: Indiana, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Auburn

/***********************************************************************************/

 

3/7/2026 Bracketology

 

1 seeds: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut

2 seeds: Florida, Houston, Michigan State, Illinois

3 seeds: Purdue, Iowa State, Nebraska, Texas Tech

4 seeds: Alabama, Gonzaga, Kansas, Virginia

5 seeds: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Tennessee

6 seeds: Saint John’s Wisconsin, Kentucky, BYU

7 seeds: Louisville, Saint Mary’s Miami FL, Georgia

8 seeds: Villanova, Clemson, UCLA, Iowa

9 seeds: Saint Louis, Utah State, TCU, UCF

10 seeds: NC State, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas

11 seeds: Ohio State, SMU, VCU, Santa Clara, Auburn, Miami OH

12 seeds: South Florida, Yale, Stephen F. Austin, High Point

13 seeds: Liberty, UNC Wilmington, Utah Valley, Bradley

14 seeds: Hawaii, North Dakota State, Troy, Navy

15 seeds: ETSU, Austin Peay, Portland State, Wright State

16 seeds: Merrimack, Tennessee State, Long Island, UMBC, Howard, Bethune Cookman

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: SMU, VCU, Santa Clara, Auburn

First Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Cincinnati

/***********************************************************************************/

 

FINAL 2025 Bracketology

 Auto bids are in bold

1 seeds: Auburn, Houston, Duke, Florida

2 seeds: Tennessee, Alabama, Michigan State, Saint John’s

3 seeds: Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kentucky

4 seeds: Texas A&M, Arizona, Michigan, Purdue

5 seeds: Maryland, Clemson, Oregon, Mississippi

6 seeds: Louisville, BYU, Saint Mary’s, Illinois

7 seeds: UCLA, Missouri, Kansas, Memphis

8 seeds: Marquette, Gonzaga, Connecticut, Mississippi State

9 seeds: Creighton, Georgia, New Mexico, Utah State

10 seeds: Oklahoma, Baylor, West Virginia, Arkansas

11 seeds: San Diego State, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Xavier, VCU, Colorado State

12 seeds: UC San Diego, Drake, McNeese State, Liberty

13 seeds: Yale, High Point, Grand Canyon, Akron

14 seeds: Lipscomb, UNC Wilmington, Troy, Robert Morris

15 seeds: Montana, Bryant, Wofford, Omaha

16 seeds: Norfolk State, SIU Edwardsville, American, Mount Saint Mary’s, Alabama State, Saint Francis

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: San Diego State, Vanderbilt, Indiana, Xavier

Others Considered: Boise State, North Carolina, Texas

/***********************************************************************************/

3/12/2025 Bracketology

 Based on games played through 3/11. Auto bids in bold. 

1 seeds: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida

2 seeds: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State, Saint John’s

3 seeds: Iowa State, Kentucky, Texas Tech, Texas A&M

4 seeds: Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Arizona

5 seeds: Clemson, Oregon, Michigan, Mississippi

6 seeds: Louisville, Saint Mary’s, UCLA, Illinois

7 seeds: Missouri, BYU, Kansas, Memphis

8 seeds: Marquette, Mississippi State, Connecticut, Gonzaga

9 seeds: Georgia, Creighton, New Mexico, Baylor

10 seeds: Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Utah State, Arkansas

11 seeds: San Diego State, VCU, Oklahoma, Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State

12 seeds: Drake, UC San Diego, McNeese State

13 seeds: Yale, High Point, Akron, Lipscomb

14 seeds: UNC Wilmington, Utah Valley, Troy, Northern Colorado

15 seeds: Robert Morris, Bryant, Wofford, Norfolk State

16 seeds: Omaha, Quinnipiac, Southern, SIU Edwardsville, American, Saint Francis

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Oklahoma, Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State

First Four Out: North Carolina, Boise State, Texas, Colorado State

/***********************************************************************************/

 

 

FINAL 2024 Bracketology

 Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina

2 seeds: Tennessee, Iowa State, Arizona, Marquette

3 seeds: Baylor, Creighton, Auburn, Illinois

4 seeds: Kansas, Duke, Alabama, Kentucky

5 seeds: Wisconsin, BYU, San Diego State, South Carolina

6 seeds: Texas Tech, Florida, Utah State, Saint Mary’s

7 seeds: Nevada, Gonzaga, Dayton, Nebraska

8 seeds: Clemson, Washington State, Boise State, Texas

9 seeds: TCU, Northwestern, Colorado, Mississippi State

10 seeds: Michigan State, New Mexico, Colorado State, Texas A&M, Florida Atlantic, Saint John’s

11 seeds: Drake, Oregon, Grand Canyon, NC State

12 seeds: James Madison, McNeese State, Duquesne, Samford

13 seeds: Yale, UAB, Vermont, Charleston

14 seeds: Oakland, Akron, Morehead State, Colgate

15 seeds: South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, Longwood

16 seeds: Saint Peter’s, Stetson, Montana State, Howard, Grambling, Wagner

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Colorado State, Texas A&M, Florida Atlantic, Saint John’s

First Four Out: Oklahoma, Virginia, Providence, Seton Hall

/***********************************************************************************/

 

3/16/2024 AM Bracketology

 Reflects games played through 3/15. Auto bids in bold.

1 seeds: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, North Carolina

2 seeds: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Iowa State

3 seeds: Baylor, Creighton, Duke, Illinois

4 seeds: Auburn, Kansas, Alabama, Kentucky

5 seeds: BYU, Texas Tech, San Diego State, Wisconsin

6 seeds: South Carolina, Saint Mary’s, Florida, Utah State

7 seeds: Nevada, Gonzaga, Nebraska, Dayton

8 seeds: Clemson, Texas, Boise State, Washington State

9 seeds: TCU, Colorado State, Colorado, Florida Atlantic

10 seeds: Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Saint John’s

11 seeds: Drake, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Virginia, Providence, Princeton

12 seeds: Grand Canyon, James Madison, South Florida, VCU

13 seeds: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Charleston

14 seeds: Oakland, Morehead State, Akron, Colgate

15 seeds: South Dakota State, UC Davis, Western Kentucky, Fairfield

16 seeds: Longwood, Stetson, Montana State, Howard, Grambling, Wagner

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Michigan State, Texas A&M, Virginia, Providence

First Four Out: Pittsburgh, New Mexico, Seton Hall, Indiana State

/***********************************************************************************/

 

3/15/2024 Bracketology

 Reflects games played through 3/14. Auto bids in bold.

1 seeds: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, North Carolina

2 seeds: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Iowa State

3 seeds: Baylor, Creighton, Duke, Illinois

4 seeds: Kansas, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky

5 seeds: BYU, South Carolina, Texas Tech, San Diego State

6 seeds: Utah State, Wisconsin, Nevada, Saint Mary’s

7 seeds: Gonzaga, Dayton, Clemson, Washington State

8 seeds: Texas, Nebraska, Florida, Boise State

9 seeds: Northwestern, Florida Atlantic, TCU, Colorado State

10 seeds: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Saint John’s, Virginia

11 seeds: Drake, Colorado, Providence, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Princeton

12 seeds: Grand Canyon, James Madison, South Florida, VCU

13 seeds: McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont

14 seeds: Charleston, Oakland, Morehead State, Akron

15 seeds: Colgate, Sam Houston State, South Dakota State, Quinnipiac

16 seeds: Longwood, Stetson, Norfolk State, Montana State, Grambling, Wagner

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Colorado, Providence, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Indiana State, New Mexico, Texas A&M

/***********************************************************************************/

 

3/14/2024 Bracketology

 Based on games played through 3/13. Auto bids in bold.

1 seeds: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, North Carolina

2 seeds: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Iowa State

3 seeds: Creighton, Baylor, Duke, Illinois

4 seeds: Kansas, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky

5 seeds: BYU, South Carolina, Utah State, Nevada

6 seeds: San Diego State, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Saint Mary’s

7 seeds: Gonzaga, Dayton, Clemson, Washington State

8 seeds: Texas, Boise State, Nebraska, Florida

9 seeds: Northwestern, Florida Atlantic, TCU, Colorado State

10 seeds: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Saint John’s, Seton Hall

11 seeds: Drake, Virginia, Colorado, Indiana State, Mississippi State, Princeton

12 seeds: Richmond, Grand Canyon, James Madison, South Florida

13 seeds: McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont

14 seeds: Charleston, Oakland, Toledo, Morehead State

15 seeds: Colgate, Sam Houston State, South Dakota State, Quinnipiac

16 seeds: Longwood, Stetson, Norfolk State, Montana State, Grambling, Wagner

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Virginia, Colorado, Indiana State, Mississippi State

First Four Out: New Mexico, Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Kansas State

/***********************************************************************************/

  

 

3/11/2024 Bracketology

1 seeds: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, North Carolina

2 seeds: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor

3 seeds: Iowa State, Creighton, Duke, Kansas

4 seeds: Alabama, Illinois, Auburn, Kentucky

5 seeds: BYU, Utah State, Nevada, San Diego State

6 seeds: Dayton, Texas Tech, South Carolina, Wisconsin

7 seeds: Clemson, Washington State, Gonzaga, Boise State

8 seeds: Texas, Florida, Nebraska, Saint Mary’s

9 seeds: Northwestern, Colorado State, TCU, Oklahoma

10 seeds: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Saint John’s

11 seeds: Drake, Virginia, Colorado, Indiana State, Texas A&M, Princeton

12 seeds: Richmond, Grand Canyon, James Madison

13 seeds: McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont

14 seeds: Charleston, Oakland, Toledo, Morehead State

15 seeds: Colgate, Sam Houston State, Montana, South Dakota State

16 seeds: Quinnipiac, Longwood, Stetson, Merrimack, Norfolk State, Grambling

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Virginia, Colorado, Indiana State, Texas A&M

First Four Out: New Mexico, Mississippi State, Iowa, Wake Forest

/***********************************************************************************/

 

FINAL 2023 Bracket Projection

1 seeds: Alabama, Kansas, Houston, Purdue

2 seeds: UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Marquette

3 seeds: Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Connecticut

4 seeds: Tennessee, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia

5 seeds: San Diego State, Iowa State, Duke, TCU

6 seeds: Texas A&M, Saint Mary’s, Miami FL, Kentucky

7 seeds: Missouri, Florida Atlantic, Northwestern, Creighton

8 seeds: Michigan State, Arkansas, Memphis, West Virginia

9 seeds: Iowa, Penn State, Auburn, Boise State

10 seeds: Maryland, Illinois, Utah State, USC

11 seeds: Mississippi State, Providence, NC State, Nevada, Arizona State, Rutgers

12 seeds: Oral Roberts, College of Charleston, Drake, VCU

13 seeds: Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, Furman

14 seeds: UC Santa Barbara, Grand Canyon, Princeton, Kennesaw State

15 seeds: Montana State, Colgate, UNC Asheville, Vermont

16 seeds: Northern Kentucky, Texas A&M CC, Howard, SEMO, Fairleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

 

 

3/11/2023 Bracketology

Seed list reflects games played through 3/10/23. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue

2 seeds: UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Baylor

3 seeds: Marquette, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Connecticut

4 seeds: Tennessee, Indiana, Virginia, Xavier

5 seeds: San Diego State, Iowa State, Saint Mary’s, Duke

6 seeds: TCU, Texas A&M, Miami FL, Kentucky

7 seeds: Northwestern, Creighton, Missouri, Michigan State

8 seeds: Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, Iowa, Maryland

9 seeds: West Virginia, Illinois, Auburn, Memphis

10 seeds: Boise State, USC, Penn State, Utah State

11 seeds: Mississippi State, Providence, NC State, Nevada, Rutgers, Arizona State

12 seeds: Oral Roberts, College of Charleston, Drake, VCU

13 seeds: Iona, Toledo, Yale, Louisiana

14 seeds: Furman, UC Santa Barbara, Southern Utah, Kennesaw State

15 seeds: Montana State, Colgate, UNC Asheville, Vermont

16 seeds: Northern Kentucky, Grambling State, Texas A&M CC, Howard, SEMO, Fairleigh Dickinson

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: NC State, Nevada, Rutgers, Arizona State

Others Considered: Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh

/***********************************************************************************/

 

 

3/10/2023 Bracketology

Seed list reflects games played through 3/9/23. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Kansas, Houston, Alabama, Purdue

2 seeds: UCLA, Texas, Baylor, Arizona

3 seeds: Gonzaga, Kansas State, Marquette, Connecticut

4 seeds: Tennessee, Indiana, Virginia, Xavier

5 seeds: San Diego State, Iowa State, Saint Mary’s, TCU

6 seeds: Miami FL, Kentucky, Northwestern, Creighton

7 seeds: Texas A&M, Duke, Michigan State, Missouri

8 seeds: Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, Iowa, Maryland

9 seeds: West Virginia, Illinois, Auburn, Memphis

10 seeds: Boise State, USC, Mississippi State, Penn State

11 seeds: Providence, NC State, Utah State, Nevada, Arizona State, Rutgers

12 seeds: Oral Roberts, College of Charleston, Drake, VCU

13 seeds: Utah Valley, Iona, Toledo, Yale

14 seeds: Louisiana, Furman, UC Irvine, Kennesaw State

15 seeds: Montana State, Colgate, UNC Asheville, Vermont

16 seeds: Northern Kentucky, Grambling State, Texas A&M CC, Howard, SEMO, Fairleigh Dickinson

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Utah State, Nevada, Arizona State, Rutgers

Others Considered: Pittsburgh, Clemson

/***********************************************************************************/

 

3/9/2023 Bracketology

Seed list reflects games played through 3/8/23. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Houston, Kansas, Alabama, Purdue

2 seeds: UCLA, Texas, Baylor, Arizona

3 seeds: Gonzaga, Kansas State, Marquette, Connecticut

4 seeds: Tennessee, Indiana, Virginia, Xavier

5 seeds: San Diego State, Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, TCU

6 seeds: Kentucky, Miami FL, Northwestern, Creighton

7 seeds: Texas A&M, Duke, Michigan State, Missouri

8 seeds: Florida Atlantic, Iowa, Illinois, Auburn

9 seeds: West Virginia, Maryland, Boise State, Memphis

10 seeds: Arkansas, USC, NC State, Mississippi State

11 seeds: Nevada, Penn State, Providence, Utah State, Arizona State, Pittsburgh

12 seeds: Oral Roberts, College of Charleston, Drake, VCU

13 seeds: Utah Valley, Iona, Toledo, Yale

14 seeds: Louisiana, Furman, UC Irvine, Kennesaw State

15 seeds: Montana State, Colgate, UNC Asheville, Vermont

16 seeds: Northern Kentucky, Grambling State, Texas A&M CC, Howard, SEMO, Fairleigh Dickinson

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Providence, Utah State, Arizona State, Pittsburgh

Others Considered: Rutgers, Oklahoma State, Michigan

/***********************************************************************************/

 

3/8/2023 Bracketology

 Seed list reflects games played through 3/7/23. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Houston, Kansas, Alabama, Purdue

2 seeds: UCLA, Texas, Baylor, Arizona

3 seeds: Kansas State, Marquette, Gonzaga, Connecticut

4 seeds: Tennessee, Indiana, Virginia, Xavier

5 seeds: San Diego State, Saint Mary’s, Iowa State, TCU

6 seeds: Kentucky, Miami FL, Northwestern, Creighton

7 seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Missouri

8 seeds: Florida Atlantic, Iowa, Illinois, Auburn

9 seeds: West Virginia, Maryland, Boise State, Memphis

10 seeds: Arkansas, USC, NC State, Mississippi State

11 seeds: Nevada, Penn State, Wisconsin, Providence, Utah State, Arizona State

12 seeds: Oral Roberts, College of Charleston, Drake, VCU

13 seeds: Iona, Utah Valley, Toledo, Yale

14 seeds: Furman, Louisiana, UC Irvine, Colgate

15 seeds: Montana State, Vermont, Kennesaw State, UNC Asheville

16 seeds: Northern Kentucky, Texas A&M CC, Grambling State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Howard, SEMO

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Wisconsin, Providence, Utah State, Arizona State

First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Oklahoma State, Michigan

/***********************************************************************************/

 

 

 

Bubble Watch: Pre Major Conference Tournaments

Before the major conference tournaments begin later this week, I wanted to provide a Bubble Watch on the teams vying for the last spots in the field. As of this writing, there are currently 7 non-consensus at-large spots up for grabs according to bracketmatrix.com. I’m going to add an 8^th spot to this analysis because one team that is currently seen as safe is one of my final teams in the field, and I am very intrigued by their resume. The community see 12 teams vying for those last eight spots, and I will tackle them in the order that I had earlier this morning in my 3/7/23 bracket update.

Before we get started, I wanted to familiarize folks with the Team Sheets that the selection committee uses to select and seed the Field of 68. For each team in the Bubble Watch I’ll provide a copy of the team sheet at the end of the discussion for reference (shoutout to warrennolan.com for his awesome job updating the site containing these sheets!) I’ll provide a sample Team Sheet of a totally random team (Purdue) and discuss what to look for on the sheet.

First, along the top we can see Purdue’s NET ranking, record against Division I opponents, their non-conference record, their road record, their NET Strength of Schedule (ignore RPI), and the average NET ranking of teams they beat and lost to.

The left-hand side of the second row contains a summary of Purdue’s ranking in various metrics. The right-hand side of the second row summarizes Purdue’s record across the four quadrants. The key above the Team Sheet lists what NET ranking and location combination results in a game being placed in a certain quadrant. The intra-quadrant results are further split by home, away, neutral court, and non conference records.

Finally, the meat and potatoes of the team sheet, the game-by-game results. This section further segments Quad 1 and Quad 2 in Quad 1A, Quad 1B, Quad 2A and Quad 2B.

Now that we have our bearings straight, let’s dive in.

LAST FOUR BYES

NC State

The Wolfpack are 22-9 overall with a 7-9 record against the top two quadrants. Their overall strength of schedule (SoS) ranks 79^th nationally, which is the third worst ranking among the 12 teams in this Bubble Watch. That’s partly due to the ACC being down this year, but also because their non-conference SoS is ranked 244^th nationally. Besides the Battle for Atlantis tournament, they did not challenge themselves.

The good on this profile is a 3-1 neutral court record with two of those wins coming in Quad 2. They also went 3-0 in Quad 2A and have no losses in Quad 3 or Quad 4 – the only team of the 12 that can make that distinction. The concern with this profile (besides the SoS) is the 10 Quad 4 wins inflating their record and metrics, and lack of a win against an NCAA Tournament caliber team away from home.

Their best win, a 24 point victory at home against Duke, is really carrying the profile. None of their other wins in the first two quadrants com close to that margin of victory, and this is where the removal of a cap on MoV is lifting NC State’s NET ranking.

 

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs are 20-11 overall and went 7-10 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. They started the season red hot, going 12-1 in the non-conference and picked up good wins against Marquette (Quad 1A) and Utah (Quad 2) on a neutral court, and versus TCU at home (Quad 1). The non-conference SoS ranked 231^st nationally, but that seems to be weighted down heavily by playing the worst of the worst in Quad 4. They played four non-conference games against Quad 1 and Quad 2, which is more than several teams in this Bubble Watch. They limped through the SEC, but did pick up a win Quad 1A at Arkansas.

The bad on this profile is the Quad 3 loss at Georgia. Additionally, removing the 8 Quad 4 victories from their record yields an overall record of just 12-11. The 7-10 combined record against Quads 1 & 2 results in a 41.2% winning percentage, which is third worst among the Bubble Watch teams.

 

Nevada

The Wolfpack would have been considered safe just 8 days ago – and then they ended up losing their final two regular season games, both of which were Quad 3 losses. Not a great time to pick up your worst losses of the season. While recency bias does not factor into the committee’s decision (it’s about body of work), it’s still human nature to have that creep into the back of you mind when evaluating the Team Sheet.

Nevada is 21-9 overall with an 8-7 record against the top two quadrants. They challenged themselves well in the non-conference, as evident by them having only played four total Quad 4 games. The positives on this resume are home wins against the top teams in the Mountain West conference, the winning record against Quads 1 & 2, and a couple of neutral court victories. The bad is the two Quad 3 losses they just picked up and lack of a win away from home against an NCAA Tournament caliber opponent.

 

Utah State

The Aggies hit a lull right before Christmas in which they picked up two Quad 4 losses. That’s right, two Quad 4 losses. That is a lot to overcome to earn an at-large bid from the committee. Their overall record of 23-7 looks good, but it did come against the 80^th ranked SoS, the second worst among the 12 teams in this Bubble Watch. What jumps out from a positive sense is their NET and KenPom ranking and their record against Quads 2 and 3 (20-1 combined, with 8 of those wins coming in Quad 2). If not for those two Quad 4 losses this would be the profile of a 9/10 seed and safely in. Those losses are the reason this team is on the bubble.

 

LAST FOUR IN

Penn State

Penn State went 19-12 overall with a 9-11 record against the top two quadrants. Those 9 combined wins were due to their Big Ten conference performance, as just one of those wins came in the non-conference season. Their non-conference SoS ranks 274^th nationally, which is third worst among the 12 teams in this Bubble Watch. Removing their 6 Quad 4 victories results in an overall record of 13-12. Let’s shift to the positives – Penn State has two Quad 1A victories, both of which came on the road against Illinois and Northwestern. They also have a good Quad 2 neutral court win over Furman, a projected 14 seed. The combined 9 victories in Quads 1 & 2 are tied for second most among the 12 Bubble Watch teams. Lastly, their Quad 3 loss at home to Wisconsin is a borderline Quad 2 loss, so not too bad.

They will face Illinois in their opening Big Ten Tournament game, a team they have beaten twice already this season. Picking up a third win should lock them into the field, but a loss will make them sweat on Selection Sunday.

 

Providence

Remember at the beginning when I said there was a team that the bracketology community had consensus that the team was in the field safely, but I wasn’t as confident? Providence is that team.

Let’s start with the positives. Providence has three Quad 1A wins (which are like gold in the committee’s eyes) against Connecticut, Marquette, and Creighton. That’s the most of the 12 teams in this Bubble Watch and more than several teams locked into the field; however, all three of those wins came at home. Only other positive is Providence has zero Quad 4 losses, but if your second best argument is “we don’t have a bad loss” you’re in trouble. That’s it – that’s the only positives on this entire resume.

Now for the negatives:

• Providence has the 292^nd ranked non-conference strength of schedule. That’s second worst among at-large teams (congrats to Rutgers). The committee has consistently punished teams for playing a poor non-conference schedule.
• Not only was their non-conference schedule poor, they lost ALL of their Quad 1, 2 & 3 games in the non-conference, meaning they beat nobody of note outside of the Big East conference.
• They have a combined 6-9 record against Quads 1&2 for a 40% winning percentage – only Arkansas and Michigan have worse winning percentages among potential at-large teams
• The combined 6 wins against Quads 1&2 are the lowest among the 12 teams in this Bubble Watch
• Providence has 0 neutral court wins and their best road win is against 75^th ranked Seton Hall, right on the Quad 1/Quad 2 borderline. The committee values (perhaps most importantly) winning against NCAA Tournament caliber opponents away from home. Providence has 0 such wins of that nature.
• Their overall record of 21-10 is inflated by picking up 10 wins against Quad 4 opponents, which are meaningless victories. Removing those from the Team Sheet results in an 11-10 overall record.
• The average NET ranking of the teams they have beaten is the worst among all potential at-large teams

The more and more I look at this resume, the more and more I’m thinking Providence may be the team that most bracketologists miss on. Last year it was Texas A&M after their run in the SEC Tournament, in 2021 it was Louisville, 2019 it was TCU. Every year there is one team that is left out that shocks everyone.

 

Wisconsin

The Badgers have a 17-13 overall record, and I can hear the groans through the computer. How can a 13 loss team be in?! Well, going 11-12 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents certainly helps. Wisconsin played the 13^th most difficult schedule in the nation this year, supported with the 71^st ranked non-conference SoS. That’s the second best overall SoS and best non-conference SoS among the 12 Bubble Watch teams. And in the non-conference, the Badgers picked up wins at Marquette (Quad 1A), on neutral court against USC (Quad 1B) Dayton and Stanford (both Quad 2). Overtime losses to Kansas, Michigan and Nebraska are the difference between safely being in near the 8 line, and fighting for your tournament life. The blemishes on this profile are the NET ranking, the home loss to Wake Forest, which is a Quad 3 loss, and that their overall record becomes 12-13 when removing the Quad 4 victories. Still, the committee tends to reward teams that challenged themselves out of conference and picked up wins against that schedule, and Wisconsin did that.

 

Arizona State

The Sun Devils play in the soon-to-be-dissolved Pac-12 conference and went 20-11 overall. Their overall SoS is 56^th and non-conference SoS is 189^th – both solidly mid. The positives on this profile are a 3-0 neutral court record with those wins coming against Creighton (Quad 1A) Michigan and VCU (both Quad 2), winning at Arizona on a halfcourt buzzer beater, and picking up solid road wins against Oregon and Colorado in conference play. Going 8-10 against the top two quadrants isn’t too shabby either. Everything looks fine…until you get to that pesky Quad 4 loss against Texas Southern, the worst team they faced all season. If you blink you’d miss it. Only four teams among these 12 Bubble Watch teams have at least one Quad 4 loss, and ASU is one of them.

 

FIRST FOUR OUT

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh went from ACC champs to potentially missing the NCAA tournament in the matter of a week. Sitting at 21-10 and 8-7 against the top two quadrants, the Panthers have several red flags. The positives are road wins over Northwestern and NC State (both Quad 1A) and the aforementioned winning record against Quads 1 & 2. After that, there’s:

• The worst ranked overall SoS among at-large teams (91^st nationally)
• A Quad 4 loss at home to Florida State
• A Quad 3 loss at Notre Dame
• The second worst average metric ranking among all potential at-large teams – only Wisconsin is worse, but for Pitt the concerning part is all of the metrics are in the 50s or 60s whereas Wisconsin has a top 50 Strength of Record
• Zero neutral court wins – in fact, Pittsburgh and Arizona State played in the same non-conference tournament this year. ASU won is, Pittsburgh lost both of their games (to Michigan and VCU).

Ultimately, the Quad 4 loss, poor SoS and collectively meh ranking across all metrics scream of a profile not worthy of an NCAA bid at this time.

 

Rutgers

 

Rutgers is a shell of its former self. Ever since Mawot Mag went down with an injury against Michigan State on 2/4, the Scarlet Knights are just 2-6 overall (of course, those two wins came against fellow Bubble Watch teams Penn State and Wisconsin…). As hinted at in the Providence summary, Rutgers owns the worst non conference SoS among at-large potential teams, ranking 308^th nationally. And because of that, they picked up 0 wins in Quad 1 or 2 in the non-conference. While they are 9-10 against the top two quadrants, they are 2-3 against Quad 3. I’ll say that against, they are 2-3 against Quad 3. The only positives on this resume come prior to Mag’s injury.

Oklahoma State

Playing in the Big 12 conference in 2022-2023 has its perks. Sure, every single game is a grudge match, but you can pick up 14 losses over the course of 31 games and still be considered for an at-large bid. That’s the case for Oklahoma State, which comes in at 17-14 overall and a 9-13 record against Quads 1 & 2. Take away the five Quad 4 victories and they are just 12-14. They’d likely need to make it to the Big 12 Tournament title game to make it into the field, and at that point may as well just win the damn thing to leave no doubt. Otherwise…well, someone has to be a 1 seed in the NIT.

 

Michigan

Michigan’s profile is a worse version of Arizona State’s – and not just because they lost to ASU. No, it’s because after you spend your time looking for positives on the profile your eye goes over to the bottom right of the Team Sheet and sees a loss to the worst opponent they played all season – Central Michigan. Michigan would need to make it to the Big Ten title game to have a realistic chance, and like Oklahoma State, just win it at that point to leave no doubt.

 

3/7/2023 Bracketology

 Seed list reflects games played through 3/6/23. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Houston, Kansas, Alabama, Purdue

2 seeds: UCLA, Texas, Baylor, Arizona

3 seeds: Kansas State, Marquette, Connecticut, Gonzaga

4 seeds: Tennessee, Indiana, Virginia, Xavier

5 seeds: Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, Iowa State, Kentucky

6 seeds: TCU, Miami FL, Northwestern, Creighton

7 seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Missouri

8 seeds: Florida Atlantic, Illinois, Maryland, Iowa

9 seeds: West Virginia, Boise State, Arkansas, Memphis

10 seeds: USC, Auburn, NC State, Mississippi State

11 seeds: Nevada, Utah State, Penn State, Providence, Wisconsin, Arizona State

12 seeds: Oral Roberts, College of Charleston, Drake, VCU

13 seeds: Iona, Utah Valley, Toledo, Yale

14 seeds: Furman, Louisiana, UC Irvine, Colgate

15 seeds: Montana State, Vermont, Kennesaw State, Cleveland State

16 seeds: UNC Asheville, Texas A&M CC, Grambling State, Fairleigh Dickinson, Howard, SEMO

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Penn State, Providence, Wisconsin, Arizona State

First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Oklahoma State, Michigan

/***********************************************************************************/

 

 Change in top 4 seed lines since the committee's early reveal on 2/18:

 

3/4/2023 Bracketology

 Seed list reflects games played through 3/3/23.

1 seeds: Kansas, Alabama, Houston, Purdue

2 seeds: UCLA, Baylor, Arizona, Texas

3 seeds: Kansas State, Tennessee, Marquette, Gonzaga

4 seeds: Connecticut, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia

5 seeds: Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, TCU, Kentucky

6 seeds: Iowa State, Miami FL, Northwestern, Creighton

7 seeds: Iowa, Duke, Michigan State, Texas A&M

8 seeds: Missouri, Maryland, Illinois, Arkansas

9 seeds: Providence, Florida Atlantic, Boise State, Memphis

10 seeds: West Virginia, USC, Nevada, Auburn

11 seeds: Mississippi State, Rutgers, NC State, Penn State, Arizona State, Pittsburgh

12 seeds: College of Charleston, Oral Roberts, VCU, Bradley

13 seeds: Liberty, Southern Miss, Utah Valley, Toledo

14 seeds: Iona, Yale, UC Irvine, Furman

15 seeds: Colgate, Eastern Washington, Vermont, Youngstown State

16 seeds: UNC Asheville, Texas A&M CC, Fairleigh Dickinson, Howard, Grambling State, Tennessee Tech

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: NC State, Penn State, Arizona State, Pittsburgh

First Four Out: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Michigan, Utah State

/***********************************************************************************/

FINAL 2022 Bracket Projection

 FINAL Seed List. Teams in bold have automatic bid.

1 seeds: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor

2 seeds: Kentucky, Auburn, Villanova, Tennessee

3 seeds: Purdue, Duke, Texas Tech, Illinois

4 seeds: Wisconsin, UCLA, Arkansas, Providence

5 seeds: Saint Mary’s, Connecticut, Iowa, Houston

6 seeds: Texas, LSU, Alabama, Colorado State

7 seeds: Michigan State, USC, Boise State, Ohio State

8 seeds: Murray State, San Diego State, TCU, Seton Hall

9 seeds: North Carolina, Marquette, San Francisco, Creighton

10 seeds: Iowa State, Memphis, Loyola-Chicago, Virginia Tech

11 seeds: Miami FL, Davidson, Michigan, Texas A&M, Indiana

12 seeds: Wyoming, Rutgers, UAB, South Dakota State, Richmond

13 seeds: Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Akron

14 seeds: Yale, Delaware, Saint Peter’s, Montana State

15 seeds: Longwood, Cal State Fullerton, Georgia State, Colgate

16 seeds: Jacksonville State, Norfolk State, Wright State, Texas Southern, Bryant, Texas A&M Corpus Christi

/***********************************************************************************/

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Indiana, Wyoming, Rutgers

First Four Out: Xavier, SMU, Notre Dame, North Texas

/***********************************************************************************/