Top 16 Projection for 2/8/20 Reveal

Tomorrow afternoon the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will be releasing their third annual top 16 team projection. The committee’s goal is to shed light on the selection and seeding process, letting the public know what factors they deem most important in determining where teams are ranked. Below is my attempt to mimic what their ranking will be, as well as what region the teams will play in. Note that this projection is reflective of results through Friday 2/7.

Teams below are ranked in order by seed.

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego State, Gonzaga

2 seeds: Dayton, Louisville, Duke, Maryland

3 seeds: West Virginia, Florida State, Villanova, Seton Hall

4 seeds: Auburn, Oregon, Butler, Creighton

Teams just missing the cut (aka the 5 seeds): Penn State, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan State

There seems to be a consensus in the bracktology community that the 1 seeds are Baylor, Kansas, San Diego State and Gonzaga, likely in that order. I feel confident on all other teams up to and including Oregon making the cut. I'm interested in seeing see how the committee handles Auburn and Dayton. Another team that I have ranked as the top 6 seed, Arizona, could sneak in if the committee relies heavily on pure NET ranking. Arizona is ranked 8th in the NET, but the consensus among bracketologists is the resume fits the bill of a 5-6 seed team - they just do not have good wins away from home. I'll also be intrigued to see if Penn State sneaks into the top 16. They have really good wins, especially compared to Auburn and Oregon, but a loss to Ole Miss in the non conference and a non conference SOS ranked in the 330s (out of 353 total D1 teams) I think is going to be enough to just keep them out. The committee has historically punished teams with non conference SOSs in the 300s.

This is the second best day of the year in the bracketology universe, only behind Selection Sunday, and I’m looking forward to learning what the committee values as that will not only help rank these team but also help shape the bubble picture in determining which teams to include and which teams to exclude in rounding out the field of 68.