3/11/20 Bracketology

Teams are ranked in order by seed. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton

2 seeds: San Diego State, Florida State, Villanova, Michigan State

3 seeds: Creighton, Duke, Oregon, Maryland

4 seeds: Seton Hall, Kentucky, Louisville, Wisconsin

5 seeds: Butler, Auburn, Ohio State, BYU

6 seeds: West Virginia, Iowa, Penn State, Virginia

7 seeds: Michigan, Colorado, Houston, Illinois

8 seeds: Providence, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Arizona

9 seeds: LSU, Oklahoma, Rutgers, Florida

10 seeds: USC, Arizona State, Indiana, Xavier

11 seeds: Texas Tech, Wichita State, Richmond, UCLA, Cincinnati, Utah State

12 seeds: East Tennessee State, Liberty, Yale, Stephen F. Austin

13 seeds: Vermont, Akron, North Texas, New Mexico State

14 seeds: Belmont, Bradley, Hofstra, Colgate

15 seeds: UC Irvine, North Dakota State, Eastern Washington, Little Rock

16 seeds: Winthrop, Northern Kentucky, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, NC Central

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Last 4 In: Wichita State, Richmond, UCLA, Cincinnati

First 4 Out: Stanford, NC State, Texas, Arkansas

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3/9/20 Bracketology

Teams are ranked in order by seed. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton

2 seeds: San Diego State, Florida State, Villanova, Michigan State

3 seeds: Creighton, Duke, Maryland, Oregon

4 seeds: Seton Hall, Kentucky, Louisville, Wisconsin

5 seeds: Butler, Auburn, Ohio State, BYU

6 seeds: West Virginia, Penn State, Iowa, Michigan

7 seeds: Colorado, Virginia, Illinois, Marquette

8 seeds: Houston, Arizona, LSU, Saint Mary’s

9 seeds: Oklahoma, USC, Florida, Providence

10 seeds: Rutgers, Arizona State, Indiana, Xavier

11 seeds: Wichita State, Texas Tech, Stanford, Richmond, NC State, Utah State

12 seeds: East Tennessee State, Liberty, Yale, Stephen F. Austin

13 seeds: Vermont, Akron, North Texas, New Mexico State

14 seeds: Belmont, Bradley, Hofstra, Colgate

15 seeds: Wright State, UC Irvine, North Dakota State, Eastern Washington

16 seeds: Little Rock, Winthrop, Siena, Robert Morris, Prairie View A&M, NC Central

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Last 4 In: Texas Tech, Stanford, Richmond, NC State

First 4 Out: Cincinnati, Texas, UCLA, Arkansas

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3/2/20 Bracketology

Teams are ranked in order by seed. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State

2 seeds: Dayton, Maryland, Florida State, Seton Hall

3 seeds: Creighton, Villanova, Duke, Kentucky

4 seeds: Louisville, Michigan State, Oregon, Penn State

5 seeds: Auburn, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Butler

6 seeds: Iowa, BYU, Michigan, West Virginia

7 seeds: Colorado, Illinois, Marquette, Arizona

8 seeds: LSU, Houston, Virginia, Arizona State

9 seeds: Saint Mary’s, Oklahoma, USC, Indiana

10 seeds: Florida, Xavier, Texas Tech, Wichita State

11 seeds: Providence, Rutgers, East Tennessee State, NC State, Rhode Island

12 seeds: Stanford, Richmond, Northern Iowa, Liberty, Yale

13 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, North Texas, New Mexico State

14 seeds: Belmont, Bowling Green, Hofstra, Northern Colorado

15 seeds: Colgate, UC Irvine, Wright State, South Dakota State

16 seeds: Little Rock, Radford, Saint Francis PA, Prairie View A&M, Siena, North Carolina A&T

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Last 4 In: NC State, Rhode Island, Stanford, Richmond

First 4 Out: Utah State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Arkansas

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2/23/20 Bracketology

Teams are ranked in order by seed. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, San Diego State

2 seeds: Dayton, Maryland, Duke, Florida State

3 seeds: Creighton, Villanova, Louisville, Seton Hall

4 seeds: Oregon, Kentucky, Penn State, Michigan State

5 seeds: Auburn, West Virginia, Michigan, Colorado

6 seeds: Butler, Iowa, Ohio State, Arizona

7 seeds: BYU, Wisconsin, Marquette, Illinois

8 seeds: LSU, Houston, Texas Tech, Indiana

9 seeds: Saint Mary’s, Arizona State, Xavier, Florida

10 seeds: Rutgers, Virginia, Wichita State, Oklahoma

11 seeds: Rhode Island, USC, East Tennessee State, NC State, Utah State

12 seeds: Providence, Cincinnati, Northern Iowa, Liberty, Yale

13 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Vermont, Akron, North Texas

14 seeds: New Mexico State, Colgate, Wright State, Hofstra

15 seeds: Winthrop, UC Irvine, South Dakota State, Little Rock

16 seeds: Montana, Austin Peay, Saint Francis PA, Norfolk State, Prairie View A&M, Siena

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Last 4 In: NC State, Utah State, Providence, Cincinnati

First 4 Out: Georgetown, Richmond, Arkansas, Mississippi State

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2/16/20 Bracketology

Teams are ranked in order by seed. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State

2 seeds: Duke, Dayton, Maryland, Penn State

3 seeds: Florida State, Louisville, Seton Hall, Auburn

4 seeds: Creighton, Villanova, Oregon, West Virginia

5 seeds: Colorado, Michigan State, Butler, Kentucky

6 seeds: Marquette, Ohio State, Arizona, Iowa

7 seeds: LSU, Houston, Wisconsin, BYU

8 seeds: Michigan, Texas Tech, Illinois, Oklahoma

9 seeds: Rutgers, Florida, Rhode Island, Wichita State

10 seeds: Saint Mary’s, Xavier, Cincinnati, Indiana

11 seeds: USC, Arizona State, Purdue, Virginia, Utah State, Georgetown

12 seeds: Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Yale, Liberty

13 seeds: Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, Akron

14 seeds: New Mexico State, Colgate, Wright State, Hofstra

15 seeds: Winthrop, UC Irvine, Little Rock, Murray State

16 seeds: South Dakota State, Montana, Rider, Prairie View A&M, Robert Morris, NC Central

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Last 4 In: Purdue, Virginia, Utah State, Georgetown

First 4 Out: Arkansas, Richmond, Alabama, NC State

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Top 16 Projection for 2/8/20 Reveal

Tomorrow afternoon the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will be releasing their third annual top 16 team projection. The committee’s goal is to shed light on the selection and seeding process, letting the public know what factors they deem most important in determining where teams are ranked. Below is my attempt to mimic what their ranking will be, as well as what region the teams will play in. Note that this projection is reflective of results through Friday 2/7.

Teams below are ranked in order by seed.

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego State, Gonzaga

2 seeds: Dayton, Louisville, Duke, Maryland

3 seeds: West Virginia, Florida State, Villanova, Seton Hall

4 seeds: Auburn, Oregon, Butler, Creighton

Teams just missing the cut (aka the 5 seeds): Penn State, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan State

There seems to be a consensus in the bracktology community that the 1 seeds are Baylor, Kansas, San Diego State and Gonzaga, likely in that order. I feel confident on all other teams up to and including Oregon making the cut. I'm interested in seeing see how the committee handles Auburn and Dayton. Another team that I have ranked as the top 6 seed, Arizona, could sneak in if the committee relies heavily on pure NET ranking. Arizona is ranked 8th in the NET, but the consensus among bracketologists is the resume fits the bill of a 5-6 seed team - they just do not have good wins away from home. I'll also be intrigued to see if Penn State sneaks into the top 16. They have really good wins, especially compared to Auburn and Oregon, but a loss to Ole Miss in the non conference and a non conference SOS ranked in the 330s (out of 353 total D1 teams) I think is going to be enough to just keep them out. The committee has historically punished teams with non conference SOSs in the 300s.

This is the second best day of the year in the bracketology universe, only behind Selection Sunday, and I’m looking forward to learning what the committee values as that will not only help rank these team but also help shape the bubble picture in determining which teams to include and which teams to exclude in rounding out the field of 68.

2/2/20 Bracketology

Teams are ranked in order by seed. Auto bids are in bold.

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego State, Gonzaga

2 seeds: West Virginia, Florida State, Duke, Dayton

3 seeds: Villanova, Seton Hall, Louisville, Auburn

4 seeds: Maryland, Creighton, Butler, Oregon

5 seeds: Michigan State, Colorado, LSU, Iowa

6 seeds: Penn State, Arizona, Kentucky, Illinois

7 seeds: Marquette, USC, Rutgers, Houston

8 seeds: Arkansas, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Ohio State

9 seeds: BYU, Michigan, Stanford, Indiana

10 seeds: Oklahoma, Florida, Rhode Island, Saint Mary’s

11 seeds: Memphis, Texas Tech, VCU, Xavier, Mississippi State, Georgetown

12 seeds: Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Yale, Liberty

13 seeds: Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, North Texas, New Mexico State

14 seeds: Wright State, Winthrop, Colgate, UC Irvine

15 seeds: Bowling Green, Little Rock, South Dakota State, Murray State

16 seeds: William & Mary, Montana, Monmouth, Texas Southern, Merrimack, Norfolk State

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Last 4 In: VCU, Xavier, Mississippi State, Georgetown

First 4 Out: Virginia, Minnesota, Purdue, Alabama

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1/26/2020 Bracketology

Teams are ranked in order by seed. Auto bids are in bold and are determined via KenPom projections, with tiebreaker being awarded to the head-to-head winner. Second tiebreaker is awarded to the team ranked higher in KenPom’s rankings.

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego State, Gonzaga

2 seeds: Seton Hall, West Virginia, Florida State, Duke

3 seeds: Dayton, Butler, Oregon, Villanova

4 seeds: Michigan State, Louisville, Maryland, Colorado

5 seeds: Iowa, Auburn, Kentucky Penn State

6 seeds: LSU, Creighton, Illinois, Rutgers

7 seeds: Wichita State, Arizona, Marquette, Houston

8 seeds: USC, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Indiana

9 seeds: Stanford, BYU, Ohio State, Michigan

10 seeds: Oklahoma, Florida, Minnesota, Memphis

11 seeds: Saint Mary’s, Texas Tech, Purdue, NC State, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island

12 seeds: Liberty, Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Yale

13 seeds: Akron, North Texas, Vermont, Stephen F. Austin

14 seeds: New Mexico State, William & Mary, Wright State, Colgate

15 seeds: UC Irvine, Little Rock, Murray State, Montana

16 seeds: South Dakota State, Winthrop, Saint Francis (PA), Norfolk State, Prairie View A&M, Monmouth

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Last 4 In: Purdue, NC State, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island

First 4 Out: Georgetown, VCU, Alabama, DePaul

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1/19/2020 Bracketology

Teams are ranked in order by seed. Auto bids are in bold and are determined via KenPom projections, with tiebreaker being awarded to the head-to-head winner. Second tiebreaker is awarded to the team ranked higher in KenPom’s rankings.

1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, San Diego State, Gonzaga

2 seeds: Seton Hall, West Virginia, Duke, Florida State

3 seeds: Dayton, Michigan State, Butler, Oregon

4 seeds: Louisville, Maryland, Villanova, Colorado

5 seeds: Michigan, Ohio State, Auburn, LSU

6 seeds: Kentucky, Iowa, Arizona, Wichita State

7 seeds: Wisconsin, Creighton, Penn State, Arkansas

8 seeds: Rutgers, Memphis, Indiana, Marquette

9 seeds: Stanford, Houston, BYU, Florida

10 seeds: Oklahoma, USC, Texas Tech, Illinois

11 seeds: Purdue, DePaul, Saint Mary’s, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, NC State

12 seeds: Liberty, Northern Iowa, East Tennessee State, Yale

13 seeds: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Vermont, Stephen F. Austin

14 seeds: Georgia State, New Mexico State, Belmont, William & Mary

15 seeds: Wright State, Colgate, Northern Colorado, UC Irvine

16 seeds: South Dakota State, Winthrop, Quinnipiac, Saint Francis (PA), Grambling State, Norfolk State

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Last 4 In: Saint Mary’s, Virginia Tech, Minnesota, NC State

First 4 Out: Georgetown, VCU, Washington, Virginia

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