Part two of ranking the non-conference SOS for all major
conference teams continues with a deeper dive into the top ten’s schedules. The
top ten on-conference SOS based on my
method are below:
- Florida
- Alabama
- Auburn
- Cincinnati
- Kansas
- Purdue
- Temple
- North Carolina
- Michigan St.
- Wisconsin
The first thing that jumps out to me is each of the top
three teams are from the SEC. That tells me that the SEC has a great
opportunity to get some additional teams into the NCAA tournament if those
teams perform well in their non-conference schedule as it will bolster the
conference’s ranking. The second thing I noticed was three Big Ten teams making
the cut, with two of those three being contenders for the conference title and
the other being a bubble team. Let’s dig into each of these team’s schedule a
little bit.
1. Florida
|
Opponent
|
Location
|
KenPom Rank
|
Quadrant
|
|
North Florida
|
Home
|
184
|
4
|
|
Florida St.
|
Home
|
14
|
1
|
|
Towson
|
Home
|
161
|
4
|
|
Connecticut
|
Away
|
71
|
1
|
|
Saint Joseph’s
|
Neutral
|
216
|
4
|
|
Miami FL
|
Neutral
|
65
|
2
|
|
Xavier
|
Neutral
|
18
|
1
|
|
Marshall
|
Home
|
195
|
4
|
|
Butler
|
Away
|
33
|
1
|
|
Providence
|
Neutral
|
31
|
1
|
|
Utah St.
|
Neutral
|
68
|
2
|
|
Long Beach St.
|
Home
|
309
|
4
|
|
Baylor
|
Home
|
13
|
1
|
Florida has 6 projected games in Quad 1, including road
trips to UConn and Butler. Their holiday tournament features potential matchups
against in-state rival Miami FL and a championship game against Xavier. Another
neutral court game against Providence will be a challenge, as the Friars are a
sexy dark horse pick to win the Big East Conference. At opposite ends of the
schedule are two home games against preseason KenPom top 15 teams – Florida
State and Baylor. The Baylor game is a Big 12/SEC Challenge game and comes in
January. The 6 Quad 1 games are second most in the nation, but what also helps
Florida’s SOS is their worst opponent ranks 304th (out of 353) and
their other Quad 4 games are against teams ranked between 161 and 216.
2. Alabama
|
Opponent
|
Location
|
KenPom Rank
|
Quadrant
|
|
Penn
|
Home
|
112
|
3
|
|
Florida Atlantic
|
Home
|
177
|
4
|
|
Rhode Island
|
Away
|
83
|
2
|
|
Furman
|
Home
|
105
|
3
|
|
North Carolina
|
Neutral
|
6
|
1
|
|
Iowa St.
|
Neutral
|
47
|
1
|
|
Southern Miss
|
Neutral
|
229
|
4
|
|
Stephen F. Austin
|
Home
|
300
|
4
|
|
Penn St.
|
Away
|
43
|
1
|
|
Samford
|
Away
|
128
|
2
|
|
Belmont
|
Neutral
|
85
|
2
|
|
Richmond
|
Home
|
92
|
3
|
|
Kansas St.
|
Home
|
49
|
2
|
Alabama draws North Carolina in the opening round of the
Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, and even with a loss they would face a likely
Quad 1 opponent. Road games against Penn State, Rhode Island and Samford (?!)
provide opportunities for the Crimson Tide to pick up road wins against quality
opponents. The committee really values winning on the road and on neutral
courts when comparing otherwise comparable teams. Their Big 12/SEC Challenge
opponent is defending Big 12 Champion Kansas St. Much like Florida, their Quad
4 games are against the “better half” of Quad 4, which helps out when ranking
schedules by average tam ranking.
3. Auburn
|
Opponent
|
Location
|
KenPom Rank
|
Quadrant
|
|
Georgia Southern
|
Home
|
126
|
3
|
|
Davidson
|
Neutral
|
61
|
2
|
|
South Alabama
|
Away
|
120
|
2
|
|
Cal ST. Northridge
|
Home
|
175
|
4
|
|
Colgate
|
Home
|
115
|
3
|
|
New Mexico
|
Neutral
|
91
|
2
|
|
Wisconsin
|
Neutral
|
45
|
1
|
|
Furman
|
Home
|
105
|
3
|
|
Saint Louis
|
Neutral
|
141
|
3
|
|
N.C. State
|
Home
|
28
|
1
|
|
Lehigh
|
Home
|
227
|
4
|
|
Lipscomb
|
Home
|
182
|
4
|
|
Iowa St.
|
Home
|
47
|
2
|
Auburn has just two projected Quad 1 games, the fewest of
any team on this list. What helps them get this high on these rankings is their
average ranking of opponents in Quad 4 games, which is 195. That is the best of
all 92 teams in this analysis. They only play one true road game, at South
Alabama, and have a potential neutral court game against Wisconsin. Their other
Quad 1 game, which just barley makes the cut, is a home game against NC State.
Upon closer inspection of the schedule, it isn’t nearly as difficult as their
ranking suggests.
4. Cincinnati
|
Opponent
|
Location
|
KenPom Rank
|
Quadrant
|
|
Ohio St.
|
Away
|
11
|
1
|
|
Drake
|
Home
|
150
|
3
|
|
Alabama A&M
|
Home
|
350
|
4
|
|
Illinois St.
|
Neutral
|
226
|
4
|
|
Western Kentucky
|
Neutral
|
86
|
2
|
|
Nevada
|
Neutral
|
98
|
2
|
|
UNLV
|
Home
|
164
|
4
|
|
Vermont
|
Home
|
78
|
3
|
|
Xavier
|
Away
|
18
|
1
|
|
Colgate
|
Home
|
115
|
3
|
|
Tennessee
|
Home
|
19
|
1
|
|
Iowa
|
Neutral
|
41
|
1
|
Cincinnati opens the season on the road against Ohio State,
a team that is projected to finish between second and fourth in the Big Ten
Conference this season. The Bearcats also hit the road against their crosstown
rival Xavier. Their holiday tournament isn’t that strong of a field and they
should win the tournament. A home game against perennial American East
Conference contender Vermont just before the Xavier game is a classic trap
game. A home game against Tennessee and a neutral court game against Iowa in
Chicago anchors a very impressive non-conference schedule.
5. Kansas
|
Opponent
|
Location
|
KenPom Rank
|
Quadrant
|
|
Duke
|
Neutral
|
4
|
1
|
|
UNC Greensboro
|
Home
|
108
|
3
|
|
Monmouth
|
Home
|
247
|
4
|
|
East Tennessee St.
|
Home
|
74
|
2
|
|
Chaminade
|
Neutral
|
354
|
4
|
|
BYU
|
Neutral
|
72
|
2
|
|
Michigan St.
|
Neutral
|
1
|
1
|
|
Colorado
|
Home
|
37
|
2
|
|
Milwaukee
|
Home
|
239
|
4
|
|
UMKC
|
Neutral
|
230
|
4
|
|
Villanova
|
Away
|
8
|
1
|
|
Stanford
|
Away
|
90
|
2
|
|
Tennessee
|
Home
|
19
|
1
|
Kansas may have the best nonconference schedule in the
nation but falls victim to an assumption in my method. The Jayhawks open the
Maui Invitational against DII school Chaminade, a game that technically won’t
count as a game played on the selection committee’s team sheet. My method
assumes games against DII schools are equivalent to playing to worst team in
DI, meaning that game is against the 354th ranked team. If that game
were removed from the average ranking, Kansas finishes first with an average
opponent ranking of 94 – by comparison, Florida is ranked first and their
average opponent ranking is 106. Kansas opens the season against Duke in the
Champions Classic, heads to Maui for a likely showdown with preseason #1
Michigan State in the championship game, hosts a very good Colorado team after
returning home from Hawaii, and then ends the nonconference season with three
tough games – at Villanova, at Stanford and home against Tennessee. That’s three
top 10 opponents on their schedule with none of those games being played at
home. Once again, Kansas will likely have the #1 ranked nonconference SOS come
March.
6. Purdue
|
Opponent
|
Location
|
KenPom Rank
|
Quadrant
|
|
Green Bay
|
Home
|
197
|
4
|
|
Texas
|
Home
|
32
|
2
|
|
Marquette
|
Away
|
17
|
1
|
|
Chicago St.
|
Home
|
351
|
4
|
|
Jacksonville St.
|
Home
|
215
|
4
|
|
VCU
|
Neutral
|
23
|
1
|
|
Florida St.
|
Neutral
|
14
|
1
|
|
Virginia
|
Home
|
5
|
1
|
|
Ohio
|
Away
|
223
|
3
|
|
Butler
|
Neutral
|
33
|
1
|
|
Central Michigan
|
Home
|
168
|
4
|
Purdue has the a challenging but not overly daunting nonconference
schedule, which is ideal for a team they needs to find a new offensive identity
following the departure of Carsen Edwards. It features four games against Quad
1 opponents and just one walk over (Chicago St.) opponent. They host Texas in
the second game of the season and then turn around and hit the road against
Marquette. Their holiday tournament will feature two Quad 1 games guaranteed,
as all four tams in the field are ranked in the top 50. Upon returning from
their holiday tournament, the Boilermakers host Virginia in a rematch of that
epic Elite Eight game. Purdue then plays Ohio on the road, for reasons unknown,
before facing Butler in the Crossroads Classic.
7. Temple
|
Opponent
|
Location
|
KenPom Rank
|
Quadrant
|
|
Drexel
|
Home
|
237
|
4
|
|
Morgan St.
|
Home
|
272
|
4
|
|
La Salle
|
Away
|
218
|
3
|
|
USC
|
Away
|
48
|
1
|
|
Maryland
|
Neutral
|
16
|
1
|
|
Harvard
|
Neutral
|
75
|
2
|
|
Davidson
|
Neutral
|
61
|
2
|
|
Missouri
|
Home
|
39
|
2
|
|
Saint Joseph's
|
Home
|
216
|
4
|
|
Miami FL
|
Neutral
|
65
|
2
|
|
Rider
|
Home
|
157
|
3
|
|
Penn
|
Away
|
112
|
2
|
|
Villanova
|
Home
|
8
|
1
|
Temple plays three Quad 1 games against USC, Maryland and
Villanova. Their holiday tournament features a solid field with projected games
against top 100 teams Harvard and Davidson. Additionally, they face power conference
schools Missouri at home and Miami FL on a neutral court. What makes the
schedule even more challenging is only 6 of their 13 non-conference games are
at home. The Owls are looking for back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances for
the first time since 2012-2013, and this schedule presents the opportunity to
achieve that.
8. North Carolina
|
Opponent
|
Location
|
KenPom Rank
|
Quadrant
|
|
UNC Wilmington
|
Away
|
266
|
4
|
|
Gardner Webb
|
Home
|
205
|
4
|
|
Elon
|
Home
|
330
|
4
|
|
Alabama
|
Neutral
|
70
|
2
|
|
Michigan
|
Neutral
|
21
|
1
|
|
Gonzaga
|
Neutral
|
9
|
1
|
|
Ohio St.
|
Home
|
11
|
1
|
|
Wofford
|
Home
|
121
|
3
|
|
Gonzaga
|
Away
|
9
|
1
|
|
UCLA
|
Neutral
|
107
|
3
|
|
Yale
|
Home
|
146
|
3
|
North Carolina once again has one of the most challenging
schedules in the nation. They open the season by hitting the road against an
in-state opponent, then return home for a couple of cupcakes before heading to
the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis. They open against Alabama, then have potential
Quad 1 games against Michigan and Gonzaga. What’s interesting is North Carolina
also has scheduled a game at Gonzaga later in the season, so there is a
potential for those teams to meet up twice. A home matchup against Ohio State
in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge right after the Battle 4 Atlantis should offer a
great test for this revamped Tar Heel team.
9. Michigan St.
|
Opponent
|
Location
|
KenPom Rank
|
Quadrant
|
|
Kentucky
|
Neutral
|
2
|
1
|
|
Binghamton
|
Home
|
324
|
4
|
|
Seton Hall
|
Away
|
20
|
1
|
|
Charleston Southern
|
Home
|
209
|
4
|
|
Virginia Tech
|
Neutral
|
54
|
2
|
|
Georgia
|
Neutral
|
55
|
2
|
|
Kansas
|
Neutral
|
10
|
1
|
|
Duke
|
Home
|
4
|
1
|
|
Oakland
|
Away
|
191
|
3
|
|
Eastern Michigan
|
Home
|
206
|
4
|
|
Western Michigan
|
Home
|
255
|
4
|
Michigan State arguably has the toughest schedule in the
fact that they play Kentucky in the Champions Classic to open the season, Duke in
the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, and potentially face Kansas in the championship game
of the Maui Invitational. Those teams are ranked 2, 4 and 3 in the AP poll, and
oh by the way Michigan State is ranked #1. As a fan of college basketball, I
cannot wait to see those games. I haven’t even mentioned yet their third game
of the season, when Sparty hits the road against one of the best teams in the
Big East, Seton Hall, in the Gavitt Games. The Spartans also play a road game
against in-state foe Oakland.
10. Wisconsin
|
Opponent
|
Location
|
KenPom Rank
|
Quadrant
|
|
Saint Mary's
|
Neutral
|
26
|
1
|
|
Eastern Illinois
|
Home
|
254
|
4
|
|
McNeese St.
|
Home
|
322
|
4
|
|
Marquette
|
Home
|
17
|
1
|
|
Green Bay
|
Home
|
197
|
4
|
|
Richmond
|
Neutral
|
92
|
2
|
|
Auburn
|
Neutral
|
22
|
1
|
|
N.C. State
|
Away
|
28
|
1
|
|
Milwaukee
|
Home
|
239
|
4
|
|
Tennessee
|
Away
|
19
|
1
|
|
Rider
|
Home
|
157
|
3
|
Wisconsin adjusts to life without Eathan Happ this season,
and the non-conference schedule will provide challenges right out the gate with
a neutral court game against Saint Mary’s. The annual game against Marquette
will be in Madison, offering the opportunity for a Quad 1 win. Their holiday
tournament features an opening game against Quad 2 opponent than Richmond and a
potential title game against Auburn. The Badgers travel to NC State for the Big
Ten/ACC Challenge and travel to Tennessee. In all, the Badgers have five
potential Quad 1 games, which will offer them opportunities to find themselves on
the right side of the bubble come Selection Sunday.
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