Before the major conference
tournaments begin later this week, I wanted to provide a Bubble Watch on the
teams vying for the last spots in the field. As of this writing, there are
currently 7 non-consensus at-large spots up for grabs according to bracketmatrix.com.
I’m going to add an 8th spot to this analysis because one team that
is currently seen as safe is one of my final teams in the field, and I am very
intrigued by their resume. The community see 12 teams vying for those last
eight spots, and I will tackle them in the order that I had earlier this morning
in my 3/7/23 bracket update.
Before we get started, I wanted to
familiarize folks with the Team Sheets that the selection committee uses to
select and seed the Field of 68. For each team in the Bubble Watch I’ll provide
a copy of the team sheet at the end of the discussion for reference (shoutout to
warrennolan.com for his awesome job updating the site containing these sheets!)
I’ll provide a sample Team Sheet of a totally random team (Purdue) and discuss
what to look for on the sheet.
First, along the top we can see
Purdue’s NET ranking, record against Division I opponents, their non-conference
record, their road record, their NET Strength of Schedule (ignore RPI), and the
average NET ranking of teams they beat and lost to.
The left-hand side of the second
row contains a summary of Purdue’s ranking in various metrics. The right-hand
side of the second row summarizes Purdue’s record across the four quadrants. The
key above the Team Sheet lists what NET ranking and location combination
results in a game being placed in a certain quadrant. The intra-quadrant results
are further split by home, away, neutral court, and non conference records.
Finally, the meat and potatoes of
the team sheet, the game-by-game results. This section further segments Quad 1
and Quad 2 in Quad 1A, Quad 1B, Quad 2A and Quad 2B.
Now that we have our bearings straight,
let’s dive in.
LAST FOUR BYES
NC State
The Wolfpack are 22-9 overall with
a 7-9 record against the top two quadrants. Their overall strength of schedule
(SoS) ranks 79th nationally, which is the third worst ranking among
the 12 teams in this Bubble Watch. That’s partly due to the ACC being down this
year, but also because their non-conference SoS is ranked 244th
nationally. Besides the Battle for Atlantis tournament, they did not challenge
themselves.
The good on this profile is a 3-1 neutral
court record with two of those wins coming in Quad 2. They also went 3-0 in
Quad 2A and have no losses in Quad 3 or Quad 4 – the only team of the 12 that
can make that distinction. The concern with this profile (besides the SoS) is
the 10 Quad 4 wins inflating their record and metrics, and lack of a win
against an NCAA Tournament caliber team away from home.
Their best win, a 24 point victory
at home against Duke, is really carrying the profile. None of their other wins
in the first two quadrants com close to that margin of victory, and this is
where the removal of a cap on MoV is lifting NC State’s NET ranking.
Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are 20-11 overall and
went 7-10 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games. They started the season red hot, going
12-1 in the non-conference and picked up good wins against Marquette (Quad 1A) and
Utah (Quad 2) on a neutral court, and versus TCU at home (Quad 1). The non-conference
SoS ranked 231st nationally, but that seems to be weighted down
heavily by playing the worst of the worst in Quad 4. They played four non-conference
games against Quad 1 and Quad 2, which is more than several teams in this
Bubble Watch. They limped through the SEC, but did pick up a win Quad 1A at Arkansas.
The bad on this profile is the
Quad 3 loss at Georgia. Additionally, removing the 8 Quad 4 victories from
their record yields an overall record of just 12-11. The 7-10 combined record
against Quads 1 & 2 results in a 41.2% winning percentage, which is third worst
among the Bubble Watch teams.
Nevada
The Wolfpack would have been
considered safe just 8 days ago – and then they ended up losing their final two
regular season games, both of which were Quad 3 losses. Not a great time to
pick up your worst losses of the season. While recency bias does not factor
into the committee’s decision (it’s about body of work), it’s still human
nature to have that creep into the back of you mind when evaluating the Team Sheet.
Nevada is 21-9 overall with an 8-7
record against the top two quadrants. They challenged themselves well in the
non-conference, as evident by them having only played four total Quad 4 games.
The positives on this resume are home wins against the top teams in the Mountain
West conference, the winning record against Quads 1 & 2, and a couple of
neutral court victories. The bad is the two Quad 3 losses they just picked up
and lack of a win away from home against an NCAA Tournament caliber opponent.
Utah State
The Aggies hit a lull right before
Christmas in which they picked up two Quad 4 losses. That’s right, two Quad 4
losses. That is a lot to overcome to earn an at-large bid from the committee. Their
overall record of 23-7 looks good, but it did come against the 80th
ranked SoS, the second worst among the 12 teams in this Bubble Watch. What
jumps out from a positive sense is their NET and KenPom ranking and their record
against Quads 2 and 3 (20-1 combined, with 8 of those wins coming in Quad 2).
If not for those two Quad 4 losses this would be the profile of a 9/10 seed and
safely in. Those losses are the reason this team is on the bubble.
LAST FOUR IN
Penn State
Penn State went 19-12 overall with
a 9-11 record against the top two quadrants. Those 9 combined wins were due to
their Big Ten conference performance, as just one of those wins came in the
non-conference season. Their non-conference SoS ranks 274th nationally,
which is third worst among the 12 teams in this Bubble Watch. Removing their 6
Quad 4 victories results in an overall record of 13-12. Let’s shift to the
positives – Penn State has two Quad 1A victories, both of which came on the
road against Illinois and Northwestern. They also have a good Quad 2 neutral
court win over Furman, a projected 14 seed. The combined 9 victories in Quads 1
& 2 are tied for second most among the 12 Bubble Watch teams. Lastly, their
Quad 3 loss at home to Wisconsin is a borderline Quad 2 loss, so not too bad.
They will face Illinois in their
opening Big Ten Tournament game, a team they have beaten twice already this
season. Picking up a third win should lock them into the field, but a loss will
make them sweat on Selection Sunday.
Providence
Remember at the beginning when I
said there was a team that the bracketology community had consensus that the
team was in the field safely, but I wasn’t as confident? Providence is that
team.
Let’s start with the positives.
Providence has three Quad 1A wins (which are like gold in the committee’s eyes)
against Connecticut, Marquette, and Creighton. That’s the most of the 12 teams
in this Bubble Watch and more than several teams locked into the field;
however, all three of those wins came at home. Only other positive is
Providence has zero Quad 4 losses, but if your second best argument is “we don’t
have a bad loss” you’re in trouble. That’s it – that’s the only positives on
this entire resume.
Now for the negatives:
- Providence has the 292nd
ranked non-conference strength of schedule. That’s second worst among at-large
teams (congrats to Rutgers). The committee has consistently punished teams for
playing a poor non-conference schedule.
- Not only was their non-conference schedule
poor, they lost ALL of their Quad 1, 2 & 3 games in the non-conference,
meaning they beat nobody of note outside of the Big East conference.
- They have a combined 6-9 record
against Quads 1&2 for a 40% winning percentage – only Arkansas and Michigan
have worse winning percentages among potential at-large teams
- The combined 6 wins against Quads
1&2 are the lowest among the 12 teams in this Bubble Watch
- Providence has 0 neutral court
wins and their best road win is against 75th ranked Seton Hall, right
on the Quad 1/Quad 2 borderline. The committee values (perhaps most
importantly) winning against NCAA Tournament caliber opponents away from home.
Providence has 0 such wins of that nature.
- Their overall record of 21-10 is
inflated by picking up 10 wins against Quad 4 opponents, which are meaningless
victories. Removing those from the Team Sheet results in an 11-10 overall
record.
- The average NET ranking of the
teams they have beaten is the worst among all potential at-large teams
The more and more I look at this
resume, the more and more I’m thinking Providence may be the team that most
bracketologists miss on. Last year it was Texas A&M after their run in the
SEC Tournament, in 2021 it was Louisville, 2019 it was TCU. Every year there is
one team that is left out that shocks everyone.
Wisconsin
The Badgers have a 17-13 overall
record, and I can hear the groans through the computer. How can a 13 loss team
be in?! Well, going 11-12 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents certainly helps. Wisconsin
played the 13th most difficult schedule in the nation this year,
supported with the 71st ranked non-conference SoS. That’s the second
best overall SoS and best non-conference SoS among the 12 Bubble Watch teams. And
in the non-conference, the Badgers picked up wins at Marquette (Quad 1A), on neutral
court against USC (Quad 1B) Dayton and Stanford (both Quad 2). Overtime losses
to Kansas, Michigan and Nebraska are the difference between safely being in
near the 8 line, and fighting for your tournament life. The blemishes on this
profile are the NET ranking, the home loss to Wake Forest, which is a Quad 3
loss, and that their overall record becomes 12-13 when removing the Quad 4
victories. Still, the committee tends to reward teams that challenged
themselves out of conference and picked up wins against that schedule, and
Wisconsin did that.
Arizona State
The Sun Devils play in the
soon-to-be-dissolved Pac-12 conference and went 20-11 overall. Their overall
SoS is 56th and non-conference SoS is 189th – both solidly
mid. The positives on this profile are a 3-0 neutral court record with those
wins coming against Creighton (Quad 1A) Michigan and VCU (both Quad 2), winning
at Arizona on a halfcourt buzzer beater, and picking up solid road wins against
Oregon and Colorado in conference play. Going 8-10 against the top two
quadrants isn’t too shabby either. Everything looks fine…until you get to that
pesky Quad 4 loss against Texas Southern, the worst team they faced all season.
If you blink you’d miss it. Only four teams among these 12 Bubble Watch teams
have at least one Quad 4 loss, and ASU is one of them.
FIRST FOUR OUT
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh went from ACC champs to
potentially missing the NCAA tournament in the matter of a week. Sitting at
21-10 and 8-7 against the top two quadrants, the Panthers have several red
flags. The positives are road wins over Northwestern and NC State (both Quad
1A) and the aforementioned winning record against Quads 1 & 2. After that,
there’s:
- The worst ranked overall SoS among
at-large teams (91st nationally)
- A Quad 4 loss at home to Florida State
- A Quad 3 loss at Notre Dame
- The second worst average metric
ranking among all potential at-large teams – only Wisconsin is worse, but for
Pitt the concerning part is all of the metrics are in the 50s or 60s whereas
Wisconsin has a top 50 Strength of Record
- Zero neutral court wins – in fact,
Pittsburgh and Arizona State played in the same non-conference tournament this
year. ASU won is, Pittsburgh lost both of their games (to Michigan and VCU).
Ultimately, the Quad 4 loss, poor
SoS and collectively meh ranking across all metrics scream of a profile not
worthy of an NCAA bid at this time.
Rutgers
Rutgers is a shell of its former
self. Ever since Mawot Mag went down with an injury against Michigan State on
2/4, the Scarlet Knights are just 2-6 overall (of course, those two wins came
against fellow Bubble Watch teams Penn State and Wisconsin…). As hinted at in
the Providence summary, Rutgers owns the worst non conference SoS among
at-large potential teams, ranking 308th nationally. And because of
that, they picked up 0 wins in Quad 1 or 2 in the non-conference. While they
are 9-10 against the top two quadrants, they are 2-3 against Quad 3. I’ll say
that against, they are 2-3 against Quad 3. The only positives on this resume
come prior to Mag’s injury.
Oklahoma State
Playing in the Big 12 conference
in 2022-2023 has its perks. Sure, every single game is a grudge match, but you
can pick up 14 losses over the course of 31 games and still be considered for an
at-large bid. That’s the case for Oklahoma State, which comes in at 17-14
overall and a 9-13 record against Quads 1 & 2. Take away the five Quad 4
victories and they are just 12-14. They’d likely need to make it to the Big 12 Tournament
title game to make it into the field, and at that point may as well just win
the damn thing to leave no doubt. Otherwise…well, someone has to be a 1 seed in
the NIT.
Michigan
Michigan’s profile is a worse version
of Arizona State’s – and not just because they lost to ASU. No, it’s because after
you spend your time looking for positives on the profile your eye goes over to
the bottom right of the Team Sheet and sees a loss to the worst opponent they
played all season – Central Michigan. Michigan would need to make it to the Big
Ten title game to have a realistic chance, and like Oklahoma State, just win it
at that point to leave no doubt.
